Polymarket’s most amazing betting market: betting on the event “Jesus will return before 2027” has a trading volume of over $55 million—Is this a theological version of a time deposit?

The leading prediction market on Polymarket, has already surpassed $55 million in cumulative trading volume for the previous event bet: “Will Jesus return again before 2027?” The current odds for No are 96%.
(Background: Polymarket announced its return to the U.S.—approved by the CFTC—operating as an “Designated Contract Market,” running an intermediary-style trading platform)
(Additional context: Deep analysis of the on-chain prediction market Polymarket—how it became a global barometer of major events, and the technical & regulatory challenges it faces?)

In prediction markets where data-driven decision-making rules, there is a wager on a proposition that no one has been able to verify in the past two thousand years: whether Jesus Christ will return. On Polymarket, the contract named “Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?” has rules so simple they’re almost absurd:

If the Second Coming of Jesus Christ happens before the end of 2026, the market settles as Yes; otherwise it settles as No.

The settlement basis in the official rules says the source is “consensus from credible sources,” but what counts as a credible source? Is it authoritative? The rules do not provide further clarification.

User Ornery-Colt raised a settlement question: “If someone claims to be Jesus returned, does that count as Yes? Or do we need recognition from the big church or the small church?” Smoggy-Mixer then followed up: “What if the one who comes is a Jewish messiah, not Jesus?”

Currently, the probability for Yes is about 4%, and for No about 96%.

Based on official data, you can see the largest holders for both YES and NO positions—both are at 500k dollars.

It’s not faith—it’s the annualized return rate?

I’m not a Christian, and I also think it’s strange that this event could even be valid on its own. But I believe there are plenty of people betting on No; assuming you buy a No contract with the current price of 0.96 dollars, and you get 1 dollar back at year-end settlement, the annualized return rate is about 5.5%.

One commenter said, “This isn’t a prediction market; it’s a fixed-income product wearing a theological costume.” A community user named Bare-Digit wrote, “If I had $20 million, I would go all-in on No without hesitation—guaranteed profit of $200k. Completely free money.”

However, some users warn, “People who think this is free betting will end up losing money. This is a very scammy process.” His concerns aren’t without reason: the opportunity cost during the funds’ lock-up period, platform risk, and the ambiguous settlement terms of the contract are all hidden costs behind the scenes; after all, controversies over event outcomes aren’t uncommon on Polymarket.