The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in March, with analysts stating that the escalation of the Middle East conflict will continue to support oil prices.

ETH drops 0.56% in 15 minutes: Institutions’ ETF in-and-out flows and tightened on-chain liquidity dominate the market

From 17:45 to 18:00 (UTC) on 2026-04-19, the ETH price recorded a return of -0.56% within 15 minutes, closing in the 2294.03 - 2311.0 USDT range, with an amplitude of 0.73%. Heightened market volatility triggered increased short-term trading activity and boosted attention, while overall liquidity performance tightened. The main driving force behind this unusual move is institutions’ short-term in-and-out flows of ETF funds and a lull in on-chain stablecoin activity. In early April, after the ETH spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $120.24 million over a short period, it quickly reversed to a net outflow of $64.61 million, indicating that institutional capital became more short-term and there was no signal of sustained accumulation. Meanwhile, on-chain USDT and USDC activity fell in tandem to an annual low; ETH’s short-term buying power was clearly insufficient, putting pressure on liquidity. In addition, high-win-rate whales have been frequently shorting ETH and BTC since April 14, with related position sizes exceeding $25 million, further intensifying downward pressure in the short term. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, the U.S. dollar remains strong, risk appetite has shifted to cautious, and some funds have flowed into traditional assets such as U.S. stocks. On-chain data shows that exchange reserves for ETH have fallen to the lowest level in nearly a decade, suggesting that long-term holders are actively shifting away from self-custody, further reducing market liquidity supply and amplifying price anomalies. Network conditions are stable; gas fees are operating at low levels, and on-chain transactions have not shown extreme spikes. The risk of near-term fluctuations remains high. ETF fund flows, large on-chain transfers, stablecoin activity, and changes in whale positions will be key indicators to watch. If institutions step up selling or stablecoin outflows expand further, ETH price volatility may intensify. Please continue to monitor macro developments and on-chain liquidity changes, stay alert to the risk of sharp short-term volatility, and get more real-time updates.

UBS Expects Fed to Cut Rates 50 Basis Points by Year-End; 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecast at 3.75%

UBS analysts predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points by 2026, despite rising energy prices. Fed Chairman Powell suggests limited tightening is needed, focusing on core inflation evidence before cuts. The forecast for Treasury yields indicates potential downward movement.

Fed Likely to Hold Rates in April at 99.5% Probability, CME Data Shows

The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates steady in April, with a 99.5% probability. Looking ahead to June, there's a 94.1% chance of maintaining rates, a 0.5% chance of an increase, and a 5.4% chance of a cut.

Rate Swap Market Signals Dovish Shift, Pricing in 15 Basis Points of Fed Rate Cuts by December

Gate News message, April 17 — The rate swap market is signaling a dovish shift, with current pricing reflecting expectations for 15 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts by December.

Hong Kong Interbank Rates Rise Across All Tenors; One-Month HIBOR Climbs to 2.55%

On April 17, Hong Kong interbank offered rates (HIBOR) increased across all tenors, with the one-month rate rising to 2.55143% and overnight rates hitting the highest level since January at 3.36536%.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: Middle East Conflict Poses Dual Risk of Rising Inflation and Economic Slowdown

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the conflict in the Middle East as a source of inflation and economic slowdown risks. He confirmed that the Monetary Policy Committee will determine suitable measures to reach the 2% inflation target at the upcoming meeting.