The bear market dominates, Toncoin (TON) faces the risk of plunging to lower price levels

The price of Toncoin (TON) remains in a dark mood as it continues to fall below the $1.29 mark at the time of writing on Thursday. Since the beginning of the week, this coin has lost more than 4% of its value, clearly reflecting increasing selling pressure. The weakening of on-chain indicators, combined with data from the derivatives market, shows that investor participation is shrinking, further reinforcing a less optimistic scenario. From a technical perspective, TON remains “trapped” in a long-term downtrend, making the risk of deeper declines a top concern for the market.

Investor Participation in Toncoin Is Weakening

Data from DefiLlama shows that weekly trading volume on Toncoin’s decentralized exchanges (DEX) has dropped to just $12.6 million USD so far this week — the lowest since early January 2024. This clear decline indicates that trader interest and liquidity for Toncoin are cooling off, adding to negative signals for the short-term price outlook.

Weekly DEX trading volume chart of TON | Source: DefiLlama In the derivatives market, the picture is also not very bright, as the TON funding rate continues to stay in negative territory, reflecting prevailing bearish sentiment. This indicator turned negative on Tuesday and decreased to -0.011% on Thursday, approaching levels seen on February 19 — when TON experienced a sharp plunge. A negative funding rate indicates that short sellers are paying fees to long positions, confirming that the market is leaning toward a bearish outlook for Toncoin.

Toncoin funding rate chart | Source: Coinglass

Toncoin Price Forecast: Extended Correction as Bears Target the $1.12 Level

As of Thursday, Toncoin is trading around $1.28. The short-term technical picture continues to lean slightly negative, with the price still held below the 50-day and 100-day EMAs. This suggests the dominant downtrend remains in place, especially after TON failed to break above the important resistance trendline near $1.40.

On the daily timeframe, the RSI hovers around 36 and stays below the neutral 50 level, indicating selling pressure still dominates and there are no signs of weakening downward momentum. Additionally, the MACD indicator has returned to the negative zone, with the MACD line below the signal line and a slight negative histogram — a sign that bullish momentum is clearly weakening after an unsuccessful recovery attempt below the resistance area.

Daily TON/USDT chart | Source: TradingView From a technical standpoint, the nearest resistance zone is around $1.40, where the previous downward trendline was broken and where recent price failures occurred. Further resistance is at $1.47, serving as a stronger barrier that blocks the recovery toward the 50-day EMA cluster.

On the downside, immediate support is at the short-term low around $1.26. A decisive break below this level could trigger a deeper decline, pushing the price back toward $1.12 — where bears are likely to continue testing the strength of the broader bottom area.

Overall, as long as Toncoin remains below $1.40, any rebound attempts face increasing selling pressure, and the short-term downtrend is likely to remain the dominant scenario.

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