February 24 News: Bitcoin has recently been declining continuously, sparking market attention on the recovery point. According to Glassnode data, the 90-day realized profit and loss ratio has fallen below 1 for the first time since 2022, indicating that the market has entered an oversold phase. Historical experience shows that this state typically lasts about six months, suggesting Bitcoin may remain at low levels until the end of the third quarter of this year.
The realized profit and loss ratio reflects the proportion of profitable and losing on-chain transactions. When the ratio is below 1, losses dominate, and investors tend to sell in capitulation. Past bear cycles—2015, 2018, and 2022—showed similar patterns, with panic often occurring at lows, but also presenting potential buying opportunities.
Monthly data offers another perspective. February may become Bitcoin’s fifth consecutive month of decline, with the longest streak on record being six months, after which a strong rebound usually occurs. Investor Gayu_BTC pointed out that extreme panic often appears near market turning points, and buying at lows could yield maximum returns during recovery.
From a price retracement perspective, Bitcoin has fallen about 47% from its all-time high. Statistics show that when retracement reaches 50%, the one-year success rate is about 90%, with median returns reaching 95%; at 70% retracement, the success rate even reaches 100%, with worst-case returns still at 25%. This data indicates potential opportunities at current price levels.
BeInCrypto’s latest analysis emphasizes that $60,000 is a key threshold for Bitcoin, which may determine the market direction in the coming months. Investors should monitor market sentiment and on-chain indicators to decide on buying or holding strategies.
Combining historical data and on-chain analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s recovery may gradually become evident in early April, but market volatility remains high, and investors should carefully assess risks and opportunities.
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