XRP Price Prediction: ETF Single-Day Trading Volume Hits New High of $72.15 Million, Mid-Term Target $3

XRP recent rally is like a rainbow, successfully breaking through the key resistance at $2.35, with the target directly aiming at $2.5. The core driving force behind this strong upward movement is the sustained inflow of XRP spot ETF funds in the US market, with a single-day trading volume on January 5th reaching a record high of $72.15 million. Meanwhile, the US Senate Banking Committee plans to review the critical “Market Structure Act” on January 15th. This positive regulatory development has brought unprecedented fundamental benefits to XRP. Market analysis generally believes that vigorous institutional demand and clearer regulatory prospects are jointly pushing XRP to break out independently, with a medium-term target of $3.

ETF Capital Influx Drives XRP to Six Consecutive Gains

Entering 2026, XRP has demonstrated remarkable strength. After continuous gains at the beginning of the year, on January 5th, XRP surged by 12.25% in a single day, closing firmly above $2.3470, breaking through the critical 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), reversing the technical bull trend. As of the morning of January 6th, XRP has recorded six consecutive days of rise, with market bullish sentiment high.

The most direct catalyst for this rally is undoubtedly the massive influx of institutional funds. On January 5th, the US XRP spot ETF market experienced its highest moment since its launch on November 14th of last year. Data shows that total trading volume of all XRP spot ETF products on that day reached an astonishing $72.15 million, with net inflows of $46.1 million. Since listing, the cumulative net inflow has exceeded $1.23 billion, and there has been no single-day net outflow, clearly indicating that institutional investors’ demand for XRP assets remains solid and continuous.

The inflow of funds directly changed the market’s supply and demand balance. When many ETF issuers buy XRP in the spot market to create fund shares, the circulating available tokens are quickly absorbed, leading to supply tightening. Meanwhile, on-chain data provider XRP Scan shows that network activity has surged in tandem. On January 1st, active user accounts (independent senders) on the XRP network numbered 15,571, and by January 5th, this number had soared to 22,567, reaching a new high since December 4th of last year. The surge in spot demand and the revival of on-chain activity mutually confirm each other, igniting market FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and pushing prices higher.

“Market Structure Act” as a Price Anchor, XRP May Reassess Its Value

In addition to the direct capital-driven push, an upcoming legislative review is providing a solid policy foundation for XRP’s long-term value. At the end of last year, the US Senate Banking Committee announced it would hold a “markup” of the “Crypto Asset Market Structure Act” on January 15th this year. Since this announcement, XRP’s price has risen approximately 27%, fully reflecting market anticipation for a clear and friendly regulatory framework and the importance of this bill for XRP.

Analysts generally see this bill as the final step toward XRP obtaining a “non-security” legal status after the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit is settled. Looking back, in July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP’s programmatic sales did not meet the third prong of the Howey Test, meaning they do not constitute investment contracts. Although the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appealed, it withdrew the legal challenge in early 2025 and received approval from the appellate court in August 2025. This series of legal actions ultimately solidified Judge Torres’s ruling that XRP’s programmatic sales are not securities.

It is based on this relatively clear legal status that the US XRP spot ETF was able to be launched smoothly. If the “Market Structure Act” passes, it will provide a comprehensive and operational regulatory framework for digital assets including XRP, completely eliminating policy uncertainty. This will not only attract more traditional financial institutions to enter compliantly but may also unlock a new investor group accustomed to trading under strict regulation. For XRP, which has genuine cross-border payment and settlement use cases, this is undoubtedly a key step from “speculative asset” to “practical digital asset,” likely triggering a fundamental revaluation.

XRP Decoupling from Bitcoin Imminent? Signs of Independent Market Trends

Supported by strong fundamentals, a more thought-provoking market view is emerging: XRP may decouple from Bitcoin (BTC) and the entire crypto market’s trend in 2026. Usually, altcoins’ price movements are highly correlated with Bitcoin, but some industry experts believe XRP could be an exception.

Canary Funds CEO Steven McClurg recently expressed this view publicly. He said, “I believe XRP will become an asset with a divergence in trend… When everything else (asset prices) is falling sharply, observing XRP’s performance—our fund continues to see inflows, and the price remains resilient—I think this could signal that XRP will hit another peak in 2026, while most other crypto assets may be in decline.” McClurg’s argument hinges on XRP’s unique fundamentals—especially the sustained capital inflow into its spot ETF and clear regulatory prospects—that make its performance less dependent on Bitcoin’s market sentiment.

Price data from the beginning of the year also seem to preliminarily confirm this judgment. As of January 5th, XRP has risen 29.13% in 2026, while Bitcoin’s increase is only 7.38%. This significant divergence suggests that the driving logic behind their rises is diverging. For XRP, its price is increasingly influenced by its own ecosystem development, institutional adoption progress, and specific regulatory news, rather than just following Bitcoin’s bull and bear cycles. If the “Market Structure Act” passes smoothly, this decoupling trend is likely to become more pronounced and lasting.

Technical and Operational Strategies: Key Levels and Risk Warnings

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP’s current breakout is significant. After a continuous rise, the price has successfully broken above the 200-day EMA (around $2.3481), a long-term bull-bear dividing line, and remains well above the 50-day EMA (around $2.0674). This bullish alignment of moving averages resonates with the bullish technical structure. Currently, the market’s key resistance levels are at $2.5 and $3.0.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels:

• First support: $2.00 psychological level
• Second support: 50-day EMA (around $2.0674)
• Third support: $1.75
• Strong support: $1.50

Resistance Levels:

• Short-term target: $2.5
• Mid-term target: $3.0 (4-8 weeks outlook)
• Long-term target: $3.66 historical high (8-12 weeks outlook)

For traders, maintaining the price above $2.2 is crucial to confirm the validity of the current bullish structure. If the price can continue to break above the upper boundary of the current upward channel, it will further confirm the bull reversal and open space for a move toward $3.0 and even $3.66. Conversely, if it falls below the lower boundary of the channel, the bullish structure will be invalidated, possibly returning to a downtrend.

However, the path to a bull market is not smooth. Investors must be alert to several risks that could reverse the rally: First, if the Bank of Japan announces a neutral interest rate range of 1.5% to 2.5%, indicating multiple rate hikes, it could trigger yen carry trade unwinding and impact global risk assets. Second, if US economic data remain strong, forcing the Fed to downplay rate cuts in March, market liquidity optimism could be suppressed. Third, if MSCI removes digital asset government bonds (DATs) from its indices, XRP’s appeal as a reserve asset could weaken. Lastly, if the “Market Structure Act” faces strong bipartisan opposition or XRP spot ETF experiences net outflows, market confidence could be directly hit. Any of these risks materializing could cause XRP to quickly fall back below $2.

What is XRP? Token Economics and Core Use Cases

For many new investors, understanding what XRP is becomes equally important as monitoring price movements. XRP is the native digital asset of the Ripple network, originally designed to serve as a bridge currency for fast, low-cost cross-border settlements between financial institutions. Unlike Bitcoin’s proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism, XRP uses a unique Ripple Protocol Consensus Algorithm (RPCA), which does not require mining, with transaction confirmation times of 3-5 seconds and negligible fees.

In terms of tokenomics, XRP has a fixed total supply of 100 billion tokens, all generated at genesis. A significant portion is held by Ripple Labs and is released to the market according to a planned schedule. This design has sparked debates over centralization and selling pressure, but transparency in the escrow plan and the company’s disciplined use and sale of XRP have alleviated some concerns. The core value proposition of XRP lies in its “practicality”—it is used in RippleNet’s cross-border payment solutions as a neutral intermediary asset between different fiat currencies, reducing liquidity costs and settlement times.

Ripple’s strategy has always focused on cooperation with banks and payment providers worldwide. Despite the setback of the SEC lawsuit, subsequent legal victories and the approval of spot ETFs have greatly cleared the way for institutional adoption. Currently, the market is looking forward to core products like On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) gaining wider application under a more favorable regulatory environment, creating real and sustainable demand for XRP.

Future Outlook: Multiple Catalysts and Price Trajectory

Looking ahead 4 to 12 weeks, XRP’s price path will be shaped by the outcome of several key factors. In the short term, the capital flow data of XRP spot ETF will serve as a daily market sentiment indicator. As long as funds continue to flow in net, it will support the price. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance is also crucial, especially whether a rate cut cycle begins in March, which will influence global risk asset allocations.

In the medium term, the January 15th review by the Senate Banking Committee of the “Market Structure Act” will be a decisive event. Any positive progress could serve as a strong catalyst for breaking through $2.5 and pushing toward $3.0. Overall, with strong institutional demand and initial regulatory optimism, the possibility of XRP reaching $3.0 within 4-8 weeks is increasing.

In the longer term (8-12 weeks), if the Fed cuts rates as expected and the “Market Structure Act” passes the Senate, the market will gain unprecedented confidence, pushing XRP to challenge the April 2021 all-time high of $3.66. Many analysts believe that once this high is broken, the path to $5 will be smooth, with the next key psychological target in the next 6 to 12 months. Of course, achieving this optimistic scenario depends on a moderate macroeconomic environment, no unexpected regulatory setbacks, and continued steady development of XRP’s ecosystem and adoption.