Pi Network faces a critical test: 134 million tokens unlocked on January 1. Will the price of Pi Coin fall below its all-time low?

Pi Network is standing at a critical crossroads. Its native token Pi Coin has been under continuous weakness, currently hovering around $0.2025, down over 93% from its all-time high, with trading volume shrinking to just $10 million. Market focus is on the upcoming large-scale token unlock scheduled for January 2026—up to 134 million PI tokens, worth approximately $27 million, will be released into circulation. Although the unlock rate will slow down in the following months, the short-term massive sell pressure contrasts sharply with weak market demand.

Meanwhile, the project team is actively working on a series of initiatives, including upgrading the testnet DEX, advancing mainnet ecosystem investments, and obtaining GDPR compliance certification in the EU, aiming to build a long-term utility foundation for the token. This race between “selling pressure” and “building” will directly determine whether PI’s price finds a bottom or falls into the historical abyss at $0.1514.

Market Pressure: 134 Million Tokens Unlock Imminent, PI Price Hovers Near Cliff Edge

The Pi Network ecosystem currently presents a contradictory picture: on one side, community eager for mainnet deployment and ecosystem applications; on the other, the sluggish and liquidity-starved secondary market for Pi Coin. Over the past six days, PI price has remained largely sideways, firmly suppressed around $0.2025. This level is not only over 93% below its all-time high but also a critical technical and psychological support level—it’s the recent low on November 3rd and a potential neckline for a double-top pattern. Once broken convincingly, there will be little to stop a sharp decline.

The core reason for this market weakness is the ongoing and predictable large-scale token unlocks. Data shows that after unlocking 190 million PI in December 2025, another wave of 134 million tokens (worth over $27 million at current prices) will be released in January 2026. Although the monthly unlock volume is decreasing and the team has indicated that the unlock rate will gradually slow in the first half of the year, such concentrated new supply in a market with an average daily trading volume of only about $10 million and a circulating market cap of roughly $1.6 billion is akin to a “supply tsunami.” It continuously erodes market buying power and reinforces bearish expectations among investors.

This bearish outlook is reflected in bleak trading data. Currently, PI’s daily trading volume is only about 0.06% of its market cap, with liquidity nearly exhausted. Even small sell orders can cause significant price impacts. Against this backdrop, the January unlock event hangs like a “Damocles sword” over traders, prompting many to stay on the sidelines. Technical indicators also signal a bearish trend: PI’s price remains below the 50-day exponential moving average, and the supertrend indicator has turned red, indicating ongoing downward momentum. The next key support level to watch is at $0.1514, the recent low from October, leaving about 25% downside potential from current levels.

Ecosystem Self-Help: Can Testnet DEX Upgrade and GDPR Compliance Build a Value Foundation?

In response to price pressure, Pi Network’s development team is not standing still. Recent technical and compliance progress shows they are attempting to build substantive value support for PI tokens from both infrastructure and ecosystem perspectives. The most critical technical move is the upgrade of the testnet DEX. The team recently completed a structural update, migrating all liquidity pools to PI-based trading pairs. This means that in the testnet environment, PI is being shaped as a core asset and liquidity hub similar to ETH in the Ethereum network.

The strategic intent behind this update is clear. Previously, multiple trading pairs could fragment liquidity, and small trades might suffer from high slippage due to insufficient depth. By consolidating all liquidity into PI-based pools, the goal is to significantly reduce slippage, improve capital efficiency, and enhance user experience. Although still in the testnet phase, this provides a key template for future DeFi ecosystem operation after mainnet launch. It indicates that the team’s focus is shifting from early user expansion to improving infrastructure efficiency and stability—an essential step toward ecosystem maturity.

On the compliance and ecosystem expansion front, Pi Network has also made notable progress. Its parent company, SocialChain Inc., was officially approved on December 27, 2025, to serve as a legal representative under the EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). While this certification does not directly introduce new features, it removes a critical barrier for legitimate operations within Europe, a major global regulatory market, and is a prerequisite for attracting institutional cooperation and promoting to European users. Additionally, the team is deploying a $100 million ecosystem fund established in May this year for strategic investments, already backing companies like CiDi Games and OpenMind, hosting hackathons, and incubating projects such as Blind Lounge (privacy social app) and Starmax (loyalty points app), aiming to enrich practical use cases for PI.

Key Recent Progress and Market Data of Pi Network

Market Price and Liquidity

Current Price: approximately $0.2025

Drop from ATH: >93%

24-hour Trading Volume: about $10 million

Market Cap: approximately $1.6 billion

Token Unlock Schedule (Key upcoming milestones)

January 2026 unlock: 134 million PI

Estimated value: about $27 million (at current price)

Trend: The unlock volume has decreased from December’s 190 million, with further slowdown expected in the first half of the year

Technical and Ecosystem Progress

Testnet DEX upgrade: migrated all liquidity pools to PI-based pools to reduce slippage and concentrate liquidity.

Mainnet wallet access: users can access mainnet wallets without prior token migration, lowering entry barriers.

GDPR compliance: parent company obtained EU GDPR legal representation, enhancing European market compliance.

Ecosystem investments: deploying $100 million fund into CiDi Games, OpenMind, etc.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Current key support: $0.2021 (recent low and double-top neckline)

Next major support: $0.1514 (historical low)

Resistance above: $0.2823 (double-top neckline) and 50-day EMA

Listing Speculation: Four AI Models Cross-Examine, What Are the Prospects for Pi Coin Landing on Mainstream CEXs?

A long-standing question in the Pi Network community is: When will PI tokens be listed on major CEXs like Binance? This listing expectation has been a significant factor supporting early valuation and community enthusiasm. Previously, PI was listed on exchanges like Gate.io, but industry leader Binance, despite conducting community polls and showing interest, has yet to act. Recent predictions using multiple mainstream AI models offer a cautious and divided outlook, providing some reference for understanding the logic behind exchange listings.

Based on assessments from ChatGPT, Grok, Perplexity, and Google Gemini, the probability of PI being listed on Binance in 2026 roughly ranges from 25% to 50%. The most conservative, ChatGPT, notes that Binance typically favors assets with fully open, permissionless mainnets, clear tokenomics, genuine trading demand, and minimal regulatory uncertainty. PI still has doubts in several areas, especially regarding actual circulating supply, ecosystem openness, and mainnet functionality. It suggests that only if the project team makes substantial progress on transparency and core features will the listing probability increase.

More optimistic models like Grok and Perplexity emphasize Pi Network’s “fundamentals”—its large, verified user base exceeding millions, and recent advances in ecosystem partnerships and compliance. They believe these factors constitute significant market potential, likely prompting exchanges to list for business reasons such as capturing users and trading fees. However, all models mention a common short-term obstacle: the scheduled 2026 token unlocks. Ongoing large-scale inflationary releases could exert heavy sell pressure, leading exchanges to wait until prices and supply structures stabilize before listing. Therefore, in the short term, PI faces a “listing paradox”: the urgent need for liquidity from mainstream exchanges to boost price and confidence, but the unstable price and persistent sell pressure are reasons for exchanges to delay listing.

Technical Analysis and Future Outlook: Finding Direction Amid Selling Pressure and Building

From a purely technical perspective, the chart structure of Pi Coin currently leans bearish. On the three-day chart, the price consolidates near support at $0.2021, resembling a continuation rather than a bottoming pattern. The supertrend indicator has turned red, and the price remains below the key 50-day EMA, confirming a dominant downtrend. Analysts point to the historical low of $0.1514 as a potential target—based on linear extrapolation of current trends—implying that if January’s unlock does not bring sufficient buying support, testing that level is possible.

However, markets are never just about charts. The uniqueness of Pi Network lies in its massive user base accumulated through mobile “mining,” which acts as a double-edged sword. Tens of millions of users hold PI, but most assets are still locked or untransferred. Any key event—full mainnet functionality, killer applications, or listing on major CEXs—could trigger these dormant assets to awaken, instantly shifting supply and demand. This hidden buying power is a major variable that sets PI apart from many low-liquidity tokens.

Therefore, outlook for Pi Network must adopt a “dialectical” perspective—short-term (1-3 months), market sentiment will be dominated by January’s unlock, with technical pressure likely pushing prices lower, testing support at $0.2021, and possibly sliding toward $0.15 if broken. Medium-term (H1 2026), as unlock volume decreases, inflationary pressure will ease. Focus will shift to testnet DEX operational data, ecosystem application progress, and mainnet roadmap fulfillment. If ecosystem development can generate genuine demand for PI—such as for gas fees, payments within applications, etc.—it could gradually offset sell pressure and help establish a long-term bottom.

Deep Project Perspective: What Is Pi Network? Its Unique Path Faces Reality Checks

To understand current market dynamics, we must return to the basics: What is Pi Network? Launched in 2019, it is a project aiming to popularize cryptocurrency through “low-energy mining” on mobile devices. Users can “mine” PI daily by tapping a button in its app, a very accessible method that has reportedly amassed over ten million users worldwide. Its core tokenomics feature is the massive distribution of tokens via mining, with most locked and scheduled for phased release upon mainnet launch. This design results in a very small circulating supply but enormous potential sell pressure, creating a structural supply-demand imbalance.

The tokenomics of Pi Coin is fundamental to all its market performance. The huge total supply is allocated to early users through mobile mining, with release controlled by the project team. This highly centralized supply management helped prevent spam and Sybil attacks early on, protecting the network, but also raises transparency concerns and centralization risks. Its roadmap’s core goal has always been the “mainnet” launch and ecosystem growth, making PI a real medium of value within the network. Transitioning from testnet to a fully decentralized, functional mainnet is far more complex and challenging than just accumulating users.

Pi Network’s path is unconventional: it first builds a massive user community, then develops technology and ecosystem. This contrasts sharply with most blockchain projects that “build the chain first, then applications and users.” The advantage is having a ready-made, potentially huge market; the challenge is to complete the difficult technical and ecological loop under high community expectations. Currently, updates on testnet, progress on compliance, and ecosystem investments are efforts to bridge this gap. Success depends on whether the team can turn technical promises into reality before community patience runs out, creating real applications that encourage users to hold and use PI voluntarily, rather than just view it as a tradable asset. The outcome of this grand experiment will not only determine PI’s price but also serve as an important case study for cryptocurrency adoption. Investors should monitor not only unlock schedules but also the progress of mainnet features and on-chain activity, which are more critical indicators of long-term value transition.