Bitcoin's "realized market capitalization" stubbornly holds at 1.1 trillion USD! Analysts: The market in 2026 is worth looking forward to.

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of over 30% in the past 10 weeks, which has frightened many investors, on-chain data shows that the spark of the long positions market does not seem to have extinguished.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's “Realized Cap” is still firmly positioned at a historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that there has not been a large-scale capital outflow from the market, suggesting that the bullish market structure remains solid.

Unlike the “Market Cap” (current price x total circulation) that we often see, this on-chain indicator is more valuable for reference. “Realized Market Cap” calculates the total value of each Bitcoin based on the “price at the last on-chain movement,” eliminating the noise from short-term speculative trading, reflecting the “actual cost basis invested by investors” and the “actual capital inflow situation.”

In other words, when the total market value fluctuates wildly with the coin price, the realized market value remains at a high level, indicating that holders are reluctant to sell and there has not been a large-scale realization of losses.

According to data from blockchain analysis company Glassnode, even though Bitcoin has plunged over 30% from its historical high in October, the “realized market cap” has not only not fallen but has continued to rise during the correction period, stabilizing around $1.125 trillion recently.

This trend reminds people of the situation that occurred during the “tariff panic” outbreak in April of this year. At that time, Bitcoin briefly dipped to $76,000, but the on-chain capital level did not recede, and shortly after, the coin price rebounded strongly and reached a new high.

In contrast, during the bear market of 2022, as the coin price plummeted, investor confidence collapsed, and a large amount of capital was liquidated, resulting in the realized market value decreasing from 470 billion USD to 385 billion USD. However, there has not been such panic-driven “mass exodus” or “collective surrender” behavior in the current market.

As a result, analysts have begun to question the “4-year cycle” theory that is revered in the crypto community.

“4-Year Cycle” Narrative Shakes, Surprises in 2026?

Andre Dragosch, the European Research Director of asset management company Bitwise, believes that Bitcoin is likely to break free from the constraints of the “4-year cycle” and experience an unexpected surge in 2026.

He explained that against the backdrop of a resilient global economy and major central banks continuing to cut interest rates, the yield curve tends to steepen and overall liquidity expands. Such an environment often weakens the dollar, and historical experience tells us that a “weak dollar” is beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin.

In my opinion, the current price of Bitcoin is severely undervalued considering the overall economic environment, comparable to the recession period during the COVID-19 pandemic and the market panic triggered by the FTX collapse. However, currently, there are no signs of an economic recession in the United States; rather, we can see signals of growth accelerating again.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, nor do they represent the views and positions of the blockchain community. Investors should make their own decisions and trades; the author and the blockchain community will not be liable for any direct or indirect losses incurred by investors' trading.
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Tags: 2026 Glassnode Realized Cap analysis cryptocurrency realized market cap market coin price investment Bitcoin market trend