Strategy once again invests $1 billion in Bitcoin, a bear market belief or a capital game?

MarketWhisper
BTC-2,03%

Bitcoin’s largest corporate holder Strategy once again demonstrates its steadfast “buy the dip” approach. According to the latest SEC filings, the company spent $980.3 million to purchase 10,645 BTC between December 8 and 14, marking its second consecutive week of nearly $1 billion in acquisitions. As a result, Strategy’s total holdings have reached an astonishing 671,268 BTC, with a total value of approximately $60 billion. This move comes amid a backdrop where Bitcoin’s price has fallen about 30% from its October early high of $126,000, highlighting the company’s consistent stance of viewing short-term volatility as an accumulation opportunity. However, its ongoing stock issuance to fund these purchases has also sparked market concerns over shareholder dilution.

Two Weeks of Continuous Whale Buying: An In-Depth Look at Strategy’s Bottom-Fishing Action

While the market is still digesting the cold of Bitcoin’s retracement from its highs, Strategy has injected a dose of confidence with nearly frenzied buying. Over two weeks, with weekly purchases exceeding $960 million, it not only set the largest weekly acquisition record since July but also marked the first time since January that there have been “two consecutive weeks of acquiring over 10,000 BTC.” This pattern of accelerating accumulation during a price correction is at the core of its founder Michael Saylor’s “long-term treasury reserve” strategy.

Analyzing the pace and costs of its purchases offers valuable insights. Last week, Strategy bought Bitcoin at an average price of $92,098 per BTC, compared to an average cost of about $90,652 the previous week. Despite fluctuations in spot prices during this period, Strategy’s average purchase price remains above the current market price (~$86,885), resulting in a “paper loss.” However, considering its overall cost basis for the over 670,000 BTC holdings, the average cost is only $74,972, leaving the company with nearly $10 billion in unrealized profits. This recent “buy high, hold low” approach reflects its unique logic of prioritizing absolute accumulation over short-term price targets.

Key Data on Strategy’s Recent Accumulation

Accumulation Period: December 8 to December 14 (second consecutive week)

Quantity Acquired: 10,645 BTC

Funds Invested: $980.3 million

Average Price per BTC: $92,098

Total Holdings: 671,268 BTC

Total Cost Basis: approximately $50.33 billion (average $74,972 per BTC)

Current Valuation of Holdings: approximately $60 billion (based on $89,462 per BTC)

Funding Sources: Through ATM offerings of Class A common stock and sale of perpetual preferred stock

Funding Sources and Market Controversy: Is Issuing More Shares a Clever Move or a Hidden Risk?

Behind the massive purchases lies an equally notable financing approach. The $980.3 million used for acquisitions was primarily raised through the sale of Class A common stock (MSTR) and some perpetual preferred stock (STRD). Specifically, about $882 million was raised from selling MSTR shares, and approximately $82 million from selling STRD. This “issuing stock to buy Bitcoin” cycle has become Strategy’s standard operational model for expanding its Bitcoin treasury, but it remains a focal point of market controversy.

Critics argue that this continuous stock issuance dilutes existing shareholders’ equity. More critically, it erodes the premium that MSTR stock once enjoyed over its underlying Bitcoin assets. Previously, investors were willing to pay a premium based on Strategy’s management ability and strategic vision as a “Bitcoin proxy.” However, as the company frequently relies on equity financing, and its stock performance becomes more volatile and closely tied to Bitcoin’s price, the justification for that premium is increasingly challenged. As of the announcement, MSTR’s stock fell about 6.7% to $164.60, while Bitcoin’s price only declined 1.8%, widening the performance gap.

Supporters and analysts hold differing views. Notably, Cantor Fitzgerald analysts recently dismissed investor concerns about Strategy’s purchase methods, arguing that questioning its buying behavior during a market downturn is unfounded. From a corporate governance perspective, financing asset purchases through equity issuance rather than debt avoids leverage liquidation risks, which is a more prudent financial strategy in the highly volatile crypto market. Management has also stated that they have established $1.4 billion in cash reserves to pay dividends, aiming to avoid forced Bitcoin sales in a bear market.

Strategic Crossroads: Weak Stock Price and Index Inclusion Risks

Despite the strong buying activity, Strategy is at a complex strategic crossroads. Its stock has plummeted 53% over the past six months and 21% in the last month, performing far worse than Bitcoin’s roughly 7% decline in the same period. This sharp “de-pegging” decline reflects the market’s reassessment of its business model and valuation logic. Investors are not only concerned with how much Bitcoin it holds but also with the long-term impact of its ongoing financing activities on shareholder value, as well as the specific risks it faces as a publicly listed company within traditional financial frameworks.

One of the biggest uncertainties stems from potential adjustments by major global index providers like MSCI. Recently, Strategy sent a letter to MSCI’s index committee strongly opposing a proposal to remove companies with “cryptocurrency holdings exceeding half of total assets” from global equity benchmarks. The company warned that such a move could have “extremely harmful consequences” and even pose a “national security” threat, conflicting with the pro-cryptocurrency policies of the Trump administration. MSCI is expected to decide by January 15. If removed, it could force many passive funds tracking the index to sell off MSTR shares, creating significant selling pressure.

Fortunately, another major index—the Nasdaq 100—decided to retain Strategy’s component stocks in its recent annual rebalancing, temporarily alleviating an imminent sell-off risk. This decision may indicate that mainstream financial markets are still observing and adapting to Strategy’s new asset-holding model rather than immediately marginalizing it. However, the premium of its stock relative to enterprise value has shrunk to about 1.1%, nearly flat, signaling that the market’s “management premium” space is now very limited.

Industry Impact and Market Significance

Strategy’s ongoing large-scale buying has transcended individual corporate behavior, becoming an important market indicator and confidence pillar for the entire crypto space, especially Bitcoin. Its holdings now account for roughly 3.2% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. This “whale” role of continuous inflow exerts ongoing scarcity pressure on the market. During each deep correction, market participants look to see if Strategy will “step in,” and its buying activity itself can stabilize sentiment and provide price support.

From a broader perspective, Strategy’s approach is defining a new corporate asset allocation paradigm. It elevates Bitcoin from a speculative asset to a “ultimate store of value” treasury asset alongside cash and government bonds. While controversial, it has undoubtedly educated the corporate and institutional investment community on how to access and hold cryptocurrencies at scale through compliant, open-market tools. Its interactions with regulators and the debate over inclusion in traditional financial indices also illuminate the pitfalls and opportunities on the path forward.

For ordinary investors, Strategy’s actions offer profound lessons: they demonstrate that a long-term, conviction-driven strategy unaffected by short-term price swings can yield returns (despite recent share price declines). At the same time, it warns of the volatility and controversy inherent in a business model that is highly concentrated, asset-dependent, and reliant on complex financial instruments. The market is learning how to price this unprecedented “Bitcoin-holding company,” and this process itself is part of the growing pains of integrating cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance.

As most of the market is swayed by price fluctuations, Strategy’s two-week, nearly $2 billion in actual buying exemplifies a “faith-driven capital” spectacle at its extreme. Its actions reaffirm its position as the largest institutional Bitcoin believer but also place it under scrutiny for shareholder dilution and valuation models. This experiment is far from over; its battles with traditional gatekeepers like MSCI and how the market ultimately values its “Bitcoin proxy” business will profoundly influence future corporate adoption of cryptocurrencies. Strategy is not just buying Bitcoin; it is arduously carving out a new financial asset class within the rules of the old system.

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