Bitcoin Falls: Even the Third Fed Rate Cut Can’t Help the Bulls

Bitcoin continues to struggle despite the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the third time in a row. And although looser monetary policy would normally support risk assets, the crypto market is reacting very differently. On-chain data now indicate that current losses among BTC holders remain far from the levels historically associated with market capitulation.

Fed cuts rates again — but Bitcoin barely reacts. Why? The Federal Reserve announced its third consecutive rate cut, lowering the target range to 3.5–3.75%. The decision wasn’t unanimous: board member Stephen Miran pushed for an even deeper cut of 0.50%. Despite this, Bitcoin showed only a temporary uptick before slipping back, suggesting the easing cycle had already been priced in — and that broader sentiment in the crypto market remains weak. Analysts point out that in recent months, traditional safe-haven assets have outperformed digital ones. Political analyst Daugherty also noted that President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had predicted this policy shift might not immediately benefit cryptocurrencies.

On-chain data sends a warning: capitulation hasn’t begun According to new analysis from Ali Charts, realized losses — the losses recorded when coins are sold at a lower price than purchased — are currently around –18%. Historically, Bitcoin’s major bottoms only occurred once realized losses dropped to around –37%. This suggests: the market has not yet entered a true capitulation phase,current selling pressure is mild compared to past cycles,the bottom may still be ahead if historical patterns repeat. Realized losses act as a sentiment gauge, and at present they show that panic is still far from reaching extreme levels.

Market structure diverges: short-term traders sell while long-term holders accumulate On-chain data reveals a clear behavioral split: Short-term holders are selling into weakness, adding to volatility.Long-term holders continue accumulating at current price levels. This divergence has often preceded major inflection points. Persistent selling from short-term players can push BTC into deeper lows, while ongoing demand from long-term holders prevents a complete breakdown in market structure.

Profit-taking and regulatory uncertainty add pressure Traders highlight additional factors contributing to Bitcoin’s weakness: profit-taking after previous gains,ongoing regulatory uncertainty in multiple jurisdictions,low liquidity amplifying every market move. The result is an environment where even positive macro news — such as rate cuts — fails to spark a sustainable bullish reaction.

What comes next? Bitcoin remains stuck near key support, balancing between weak sentiment and continued accumulation by long-term investors. If realized losses move closer to the historic –37% capitulation zone, the market could approach a major turning point that historically preceded powerful recoveries. For now, however, one message is clear:

the bottom may be further away than Bitcoin bulls hoped.

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