Bitcoin's rally stalls, retreating to around $90,000: macro pressures and stock market pullback trigger short-term trend test

Bitcoin temporarily broke through $94,500 USD under the significant bullish boost from the Federal Reserve, but the subsequent market correction quickly reversed the gains. On Wednesday evening, the Fed announced a new bond purchase plan and sharply cut interest rates, triggering a general rise in risk assets, with Bitcoin moving higher in tandem. However, due to pressure on tech stocks, Oracle’s sharp decline drove the NASDAQ 100 index to an eight-day low, and Bitcoin also retreated to around $90,000 USD.

Current market sentiment is at a critical test stage. Data shows that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has experienced volatility over the past three weeks, shifting from a moderate upward trend to sideways consolidation, and retracing to the $3.08 trillion USD range. If Bitcoin falls below $88,000 USD, it will end its short-term upward trend since November 21 and may trigger more pronounced bearish sentiment.

On-chain and institutional data indicate that, since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin reserves held by listed and private companies have surged 448%, reaching a total of 1.08 million BTC, becoming a core driver of increased Bitcoin demand. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that companies continue to buy Bitcoin for long-term reserves, which will effectively prevent the deep correction cycles of 75%-90% seen in the past.

However, there are opposing voices. Strategy founder Michael Saylor reiterated that his company will buy Bitcoin as much as possible, but investment firm Mayside Partners pointed out that this model carries high leverage risks, and such structures have repeatedly failed in history, raising questions about economic feasibility.

On the regulatory front, the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) called on the Senate to withdraw the upcoming “Responsible Financial Innovation Act,” arguing that the proposed content could pose potential risks to the pension system and the U.S. economy.

Additionally, Bitcoin whale Twenty One Capital officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, but its first-day share price fell 20%. The company holds 42,000 BTC (about $3.9 billion USD), making it the third-largest publicly held Bitcoin holder globally.

Overall, Bitcoin faces a tripartite challenge from macroeconomic factors, regulation, and market sentiment. The short-term trend remains fragile, but institutional demand and growing corporate holdings continue to provide medium- and long-term support for prices.