JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin could surge to $170,000 within a year, but warns that if Strategy loses its mNAV or is removed from the MSCI index, it could impact short-term gains.
(Previous context: BlackRock CEO publicly admits mistake: Bitcoin is not just for crime, it is a highly volatile “fear asset.”)
(Background: Crypto ETF funds see rapid outflows—can issuers like BlackRock still profit?)
Bitcoin (Bitcoin) surged past $94,000 yesterday and is currently fluctuating around $92,000, with neither bulls nor bears clearly dominating. However, JPMorgan recently released a report raising its 6- to 12-month Bitcoin target price to $170,000, predicting an upside of over 80% from current levels.
Analysts at the firm believe that macro hedging demand will ultimately drive prices higher, but caution that short-term momentum depends on the liquidity of major holders.
Strategy’s financial pressure is a variable
JPMorgan’s report specifically highlights the financial condition of MicroStrategy (Strategy) as a key factor influencing Bitcoin’s short-term performance. Analysts calculate Strategy’s current mNAV at about 1.1, just above the 1.0 warning threshold. If it falls below that level, it means the company’s market cap is less than the value of its Bitcoin holdings, potentially prompting creditors or investors to demand cash back, forcing the company to sell holdings and possibly triggering a chain reaction of selling in the market.
To maintain its HODL stance, Strategy has already raised about $1.44 billion in cash through share sales. The company claims this will cover interest and dividends for the next two years, and it has extended debt maturities through perpetual preferred shares and convertible bonds.
However, its 2025 profit forecast has been sharply revised from $24 billion to a loss of $5.5 billion to a profit of $6.3 billion, and there is a risk it could be removed from the MSCI index, further suppressing its share price and worsening mNAV. (MSCI will decide in January next year whether to exclude companies that invest 50% or more of their assets in digital assets from its indexes.)
Further reading: Michael Saylor responds to “MicroStrategy may be removed from MSCI index”: Our Bitcoin business is unique, index classification cannot define us
Top 10 tokens also fluctuate
Other top ten tokens are also following Bitcoin’s trend. Ethereum fell from $3,200, and the biggest drop in the past 24 hours was XRP, now at $2.1.
Related reports:
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF becomes BlackRock’s most profitable fund, earning $245 million in fees in one year
Texas spends $5 million to buy BlackRock’s IBIT: After DAT fizzles out, can SBR reignite the Bitcoin bull market?
Former BlackRock executive: Ethereum has become Wall Street’s infrastructure; in the future, finance will no longer distinguish between DeFi and traditional finance
〈JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin could reach $170,000 next year, short-term focus on MicroStrategy’s mNAV and the 1.0 red line〉This article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitcoin ETF ends a 4-month outflow streak! In March, it attracts $1.3 billion, returning to net inflows
According to SoSoValue data, the 12 U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $1.32 billion in March, ending four consecutive months of outflows. Bitcoin had previously been divested due to extreme price volatility, but as capital returned, market momentum began to shift, and ETF holdings also started to rise again.
区块客6m ago
XRP Surpasses BNB Amid Altcoin Crash, BTC Price Dropped by $3K: Market Watch
Bitcoin experienced a decline to just over $66,000 after being rejected at $69,200, influenced by geopolitical tensions. Altcoins, including Ethereum and Solana, also fell, while XRP surpassed BNB in market cap. The total crypto market cap dropped significantly but has since rebounded.
CryptoPotato42m ago
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be “naturally open,” and risk-averse sentiment in the market is heating up
In his remarks, Trump said that the U.S. military would complete its strategic mission against Iran, prompting a cautious reaction in the markets. Brent crude oil prices rose, stocks fell, and risk-averse sentiment intensified. Iran has taken a hardline stance and clearly demanded a toll payment; the situation remains unclear, and geopolitical risks may continue to affect the markets.
GateNews50m ago
The truth behind Circle’s stock price plunge is revealed: regulatory repricing + intensified competition, the stablecoin landscape is changing
Circle (CRCL) stock price continues to weaken, affected by multiple factors such as regulatory repricing and others. At the same time, market participants are re-evaluating its profitability as Tether’s market expansion intensifies competition and impacts Circle’s market share. Profit-taking and strategic de-risking have led to price volatility, reflecting deeper changes in the crypto industry; the market is gradually shifting toward fundamentals-driven dynamics.
GateNews58m ago
Bitcoin demand turns negative, triggering an alert: giant whales keep reducing holdings, and selling pressure could suppress upside potential for a rebound
In April 2026, after Bitcoin pulled back for five consecutive months and then stabilized, demand remained weak, apparent demand was negative, and sell pressure was higher than buying. Bitcoin transfers by large mining companies and asset management institutions were seen as a sell-pressure signal; the whale cohort shifted to reducing holdings, and retail selling became even more pronounced. With market supply-demand imbalance, the upside room for a near-term rebound was limited.
GateNews1h ago
