GF Securities: Q4 calendar effects become apparent, optimistic about cyclical industries and high growth zones.

On September 29, Jin10 reported that GF Securities released a research report stating that entering the fourth quarter, there is an important feature in the market zone structure: since 2005, the rise probability of cyclical industries in the fourth quarter has exceeded 65%, and there is more than a 60% probability of outperforming the CSI 300. However, certain conditions need to be met, namely that the “cyclical” industries' “calendar effect” in the fourth quarter is based on the expectation of improved macroeconomic fundamentals. In years where there are few highlights in the macro fundamentals but active industry tracks, stock prices in the fourth quarter have a stronger guiding role for the following year, and the performance vacuum period anticipates high growth zones for the coming year.