Arthur Hayes: Trump and Bessenet will control The Federal Reserve (FED), "printing money" to drive Bitcoin up to 3.4 million dollars.

In the grand waves of the crypto assets market, few predictions can create a stir like the latest analysis from legendary trader Arthur Hayes. Hayes boldly predicts that as the Trump administration and Treasury Secretary Basant prepare to reshape U.S. monetary policy, the price of Bitcoin could reach an astonishing $3.4 million by 2028. The logic behind this prediction involves not only monetary policy but also a profound analysis of political maneuvering and historical turning points.

The Currency Revolution of 'Buffalo Bill': Yield Curve Control Will Return to the United States

(Source: Maelstorm)

The core of Hayes' analysis is the interpretation of the Bensent plan (which he refers to as “Buffalo Bill”). The goal of this Treasury Secretary is not only to revitalize American industry but also to reshape the global position of the United States through monetary policy. The key strategy? To reinstate the yield curve control (YCC) used during World War II.

“The essence of the Bessent Plan is to shift the creation of credit from the Federal Reserve and large financial institutions to regional banks that can serve small and medium-sized enterprises,” explained a senior financial analyst. “This requires a steep yield curve that allows banks to profit from lending.”

Unlike the current flat or even inverted yield curve, Bessent's goal is to create a curve structure similar to that of 1942-1951: very low short-term rates (with Treasury bill yields capped at 0.675%) and moderate long-term rates (2.5% for 10-25 year bonds). This steep curve would make lending to small and medium-sized enterprises safer and more profitable for banks.

Why are small and medium-sized enterprises key?

“Companies with fewer than 500 employees account for about 46% of employment in the U.S.,” Hayes pointed out. “However, when the Federal Reserve is the primary issuer of credit, these small and medium-sized enterprises cannot obtain loans because the printed money flows to large companies that can access the institutional debt capital markets.”

Bessent's “quantitative easing for the poor” aims to change this situation by directing funds into the real economy, particularly in manufacturing and the defense industry. This is not only an economic policy but also part of a geopolitical strategy aimed at countering the rise of competitors such as China.

Political Chess Game: How Trump Takes Over the Federal Reserve

Hayes' analysis is most intriguing in its detailed interpretation of how Trump's team swiftly took control of the Federal Reserve within the legal framework. This power struggle involves two key committees: the Federal Reserve Board (FBOG) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Step 1: Control the Federal Reserve

(Source: FBOG)

The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, and currently, Trump's camp has secured three seats:

· Michelle Bowman: Has expressed dissent regarding the FOMC decision at the July 2025 meeting.

· Waller (Christopher Waller): also expressed dissent, implying support for Trump's policies.

· Stephen Miran: Recently confirmed by the Senate to replace Adriana Kugler, who suddenly resigned.

“Trump only needs to gain one more seat to have a majority in the FBOG,” a political analyst said. “And this is likely to come from the position of Director Lisa Cook.”

According to reports, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte has accused Cook of mortgage fraud and has called for her resignation. The Department of Justice is reviewing whether to seek an indictment from a grand jury for bank fraud. “Regardless of whether she is ultimately guilty or innocent, if she does not resign, Cook will face immense pressure,” Hayes predicted.

Step 2: Control the Federal Open Market Committee

Once the FBOG is controlled, Trump's team will be able to influence the composition of the FOMC. The FOMC is made up of 12 members, including 7 FBOG members and 5 rotating regional bank presidents.

The critical moment will be in February 2026, when all regional bank presidents will face re-election. “If the regional bank boards do not nominate candidates who support dovish policies for the FOMC seats, the FBOG will veto them,” Hayes explained. “This will ensure that Trump secures a majority of seven votes on the FOMC.”

Money printing machine activated: Credit explosion before 2028

Hayes's calculation shows that from now until 2028, the U.S. Treasury will need to issue approximately $15.32 trillion in new debt to repay old debts and fund government deficits. In this context, he predicts:

The Federal Reserve will purchase 50% or more of the issued debt, approximately 7.66 trillion dollars.

· Bank credit growth will reach $7.569 trillion, referencing the growth pattern during the COVID period.

· Total credit growth will reach 15.229 trillion USD

“This is not only an economic policy but also a geopolitical strategy,” commented an international relations expert. “Just as Xi Jinping is redirecting China's economy to conquer fields such as the green economy, rare earths, and military drones, Trump's and Besant's goal is to restore America's primacy globally.”

Bitcoin Price Prediction: From Historical Data to Future Projections

Hayes's Bitcoin price prediction is based on historical data during the COVID-19 pandemic. During that period, the percentage growth rate of Bitcoin against each dollar credit growth was about 0.19.

“If this relationship remains unchanged in the coming years, the $15.229 trillion credit growth will drive the Bitcoin price to about $3.4 million,” crypto assets analyst Michael Chen explained. “Although this figure may be overly optimistic, the direction is undoubtedly upward.”

Hayes himself admits that this prediction may be too high, but he emphasizes: “My goal is to determine the correct direction of development and to make sure I am betting on the fastest horse, provided that Trump is seriously prepared to print trillions of dollars to achieve his policy goals.”

Historical Perspective: Why Elites Drive Radical Change

Hayes cites key turning points in American history to explain why political elites sometimes push for seemingly radical changes. He specifically mentions how President Lincoln weakened the Southern Confederacy's economy by emancipating slaves, and how President Lyndon Johnson became an advocate for civil rights in response to geopolitical challenges during the Cold War.

“Today, another war aimed at a more united, prosperous, and militarily strong Eurasian continent (Russia, China, India, and Iran) requires a thorough transformation of credit allocation,” Hayes wrote. “Therefore, I announce with great confidence that regarding money printing, these 'cookies' are no joke.”

Investment Insights: Asset Allocation Beyond Bitcoin

Although Hayes' analysis primarily focuses on Bitcoin, his predictions also have important implications for a broader asset allocation.

“In this context, investors should consider allocating Bitcoin, altcoins, physical gold, and gold miners,” advised asset allocation expert Sarah Johnson. “These assets perform exceptionally well in a currency devaluation environment, especially when governments are actively printing money.”

For ordinary investors, the key is to understand the potential impact that this change in monetary policy may have on various assets:

· Bitcoin and Crypto Assets: As scarce digital assets, they may benefit from the depreciation of fiat currency.

· Gold and precious metals: Traditional inflation hedging tools

· Bank stocks: May perform well in a steep yield curve environment.

· Manufacturing and defense stocks: may benefit from increased government spending.

· Dollar-denominated debt: Actual burden alleviated in a dollar depreciation environment.

Conclusion: The Broader Impact of Monetary Policy Changes

Hayes' analysis is not only a prediction of Bitcoin prices but also an in-depth exploration of the fundamental changes that may occur in U.S. monetary policy. If his predictions come true, it would mark a significant shift in U.S. economic policy, moving from contraction to expansion, and from the financial sector to the real economy.

“Regardless of whether the final Bitcoin price reaches 3.4 million dollars, investors should closely monitor signs of personnel changes and policy shifts at the Federal Reserve,” advised a senior investment consultant. “These changes may signal significant transformations in asset prices and economic structures.”

In the context of the constantly changing global economy and geopolitical landscape, Hayes' analysis reminds us that monetary policy is not only a technical issue but also a reflection of political will. As the Trump administration and Bessent may reshape U.S. monetary policy, investors need to be prepared for the potential arrival of the “printing era.”