Ethereum's "Phantom" is Coming in September? On-chain Profits Overheat, Chart Divergence Warns of a Pullback

As of September 16, Ethereum (ETH) is reported at $4,526, down 2.4% for the day, but still up nearly 7% for the week. However, on-chain data and technical charts are simultaneously releasing warning signals, indicating that ETH may face short-term pullback pressure. Historical data also reminds investors that September has traditionally been the weakest month for ETH performance, with a median return rate of only -12.7%.

On-chain data: Profit-taking pressure intensifies

(Source: Glassnode)

According to Glassnode, on September 12, the profit supply ratio of ETH reached 99.68%, the second highest point in the past month, and has currently pulled back to 98.14%, but is still in the overbought range.

Historically, when this indicator approaches extreme values, it is often accompanied by a price pullback. For example, after reaching 99.88% on August 22, ETH fell from $4,829 to $4,380, a drop of approximately 9%.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

At the same time, CryptoQuant's futures market “taker buy-sell ratio” dropped to 0.91 on September 13, marking a one-month low, indicating a rise in bearish sentiment. Similar to the situation on August 23, after this indicator went low, ETH did not rebound but instead fell nearly 8%.

Technical Analysis: Divergence and Rising Wedge Form a Double Warning

(Source: Trading View)

On the 4-hour chart, ETH shows a hidden bearish divergence: the price highs are gradually decreasing, but the RSI highs are rising, indicating weakening momentum.

(Source: Trading View)

On the daily chart, ETH is in an “ascending wedge” pattern, which is a typical bearish pattern indicating a convergence of upward momentum.

ETH has fallen below the support of $4,634 and is currently hovering around $4,530. If it breaks below the wedge's lower edge, the next supports are at $4,485 and $4,382, with a further potential drop to $4,276 or $4,060.

The Bull-Bear Watershed Under the Historical Shadow of September

The historical trend in September has not been friendly to ETH, coupled with on-chain profit overheating and technical divergence, the short-term pullback risk cannot be ignored.

However, the bulls still have a chance to fight back:

If the closing price returns above 4,634 USD, it will weaken the bearish sentiment.

If it breaks through 4,797 USD, the short-term upward trend is expected to restart.

Conclusion

Ethereum is at a critical turning point. On-chain profit-taking pressure and technical formations warn of a pullback, but if the bulls hold the key support and break through the resistance level, there is still a chance to resolve the “September curse.” Investors need to closely watch the two key price levels of 4,485 and 4,634 dollars to determine the market direction.