XRP holds steady at $3! ETF, The Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cuts, and the "Market Structure Act" are the three major catalysts.

2025-09-15 01:45:29

After four consecutive days of pump, Ripple (XRP) has recently experienced a pullback, but still firmly held the psychological level of 3 dollars on September 15. With the countdown to the Spot ETF approval, rising expectations of interest rate cuts by The Federal Reserve (FED), and the progress of the Market Structure Act in Congress, XRP investors are迎來一個可能改變走勢的關鍵月份.

ETF Progress: Maximum Uncertainty and Potential Benefits

The REX-Osprey XRP ETF has passed the SEC's 75-day review period and is expected to be listed on September 18, employing a hybrid investment strategy (holding XRP, XRP ETF, and derivatives).

The SEC remains silent on the XRP Spot ETF, delaying the entry timing of institutional funds.

11 issuers (including BlackRock, Grayscale, WisdomTree, etc.) are waiting for approval, with the final deadline falling between October 18 and November 14.

The market expects the SEC to launch a standardized cryptocurrency ETF framework, which, once implemented, may open the gates for spot ETFs.

Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve (FED) cutting interest rates may become a catalyst for capital

Traders are focused on the FOMC meeting on September 17, with the market widely expecting a 25 basis point rate cut and possibly multiple cuts before the end of the year.

Interest rate cuts will lower the cost of capital, enhance the attractiveness of risk assets, and be beneficial for XRP and its ETF products.

In the short term, if the expectations of interest rate cuts overlap with the ETF listing time, it may create a “dual impetus” for capital inflow.

Regulatory Dynamics: The Potential Impact of the Market Structure Bill

The “Market Structure Act” will provide regulatory clarity for digital assets, address the classification issue of cryptocurrencies as securities/non-securities, and grant greater authority to the CFTC.

The last time the bill was pushed forward in the House of Representatives, XRP soared 14.69% to an all-time high of $3.66.

If passed before Christmas, it could once again become an important catalyst for pushing XRP upward.

Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance

(Source: Trading View)

Support levels: $3.00 → $2.80 → $2.50

Resistance levels: $3.20 → $3.33 → $3.66 (historical high)

The daily chart shows that XRP, despite the pullback, is still within a bullish structure. In the short term, if it breaks through $3.20, it is expected to challenge $3.33 or even the historical high.

Potential Trend Scenario

Bullish Scenario

SEC approves XRP Spot ETF
Blue-chip companies will include XRP in their treasury reserves.
Ripple has obtained a chartered banking license from the United States.
The passage of the Market Structure Act

Bearish Scenario

Bill progress delayed
Institutional willingness to adopt XRP is insufficient.
Ripple's regulatory application is hindered.

Conclusion

The current $3 defense line for XRP is not only a psychological barrier but also the core battlefield of the bulls and bears. In the coming weeks, the progress of ETF approvals, The Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cuts, and market structure legislation will determine whether XRP breaks through its historical high or falls back to the $2.8 support zone. For traders, this is a critical moment that requires close attention to both news and technical aspects.

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