4.3 billion USD Bitcoin Options are about to expire! Long positions may drive BTC up to 120,000 USD, while short positions may face passivity.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed $115,000, reaching a two-week high, driven by strong earnings from Oracle. The market's attention is focused on the $4.3 billion BTC Options expiring on September 12, as the battle between long positions and short positions may determine whether Bitcoin can challenge the $120,000 mark.

Options data: long positions advantage is forming

(Source: Laevitas)

According to Laevitas data, among the BTC Options expiring this week:

Put Options: 2.35 billion USD

Call Options: 1.93 billion USD

Although short positions dominate, bullish sentiment has quickly rebounded after BTC bounced back from its low point of $107,500 in early September.

If BTC stays above $113,000 before expiration on Friday, it will trigger over $300 million in bullish Options, providing long positions with a $175 million advantage and pushing the price towards $120,000.

Short Positions Risk and Critical Price Levels

Long positions key price: above $113,000 → Bullish options value leading $175 million

Short positions key price: below $111,000 → Bearish options value leading $100 million

This means that the final trend of BTC may only become clear in the last few hours, and any macroeconomic or market news could be the last straw that breaks the balance between long positions and short positions.

Macroeconomic Background: The Interweaving of AI Hype and Economic Concerns

The stock price of the Oracle text soared this week, benefiting from the explosion of AI infrastructure business, especially the $300 billion order from OpenAI. However, the market has also begun to question the sustainability of AI growth and is concerned about the “cycle” between capital expenditure and revenue among enterprises.

At the same time, the U.S. employment data has been significantly revised down, raising concerns about an economic recession. Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala warned that an increase in the unemployment rate could affect the quality of bank credit, but currently, credit losses remain manageable.

Technical Analysis and Strategy

Support level: $111,000 (short positions advantage trigger point)

Resistance level: $120,000 (psychological and technical dual pressure)

Neutral to bullish strategy: Holding position above 112,000 USD is expected to profit at the options expiration.

Risk Warning: If it falls below 111,000 USD, short positions will take control.

Conclusion

The expiration of the 4.3 billion USD BTC Options on September 12 will become a watershed moment for Bitcoin's short-term trend. If the long positions hold the 113,000 USD level, 120,000 USD may be within reach; conversely, if it falls below 111,000 USD, the short positions may seize the opportunity for a counterattack. Against the backdrop of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, traders need to be prepared for drastic fluctuations at the last moment.