Impact of interest rate cuts not significant? JPMorgan CEO Dimon warns: major revision of employment data, recession risk intensifies.

A major employment data revision released by the U.S. Department of Labor this week has drawn market attention. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated bluntly that this report further confirms that the U.S. economy is weakening. While it remains uncertain whether it is heading toward a recession, the fact that “the economy is slowing down” has become a reality.

Employment data major revision: 910,000 fewer job opportunities in a year

According to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Tuesday, the nonfarm payrolls data has been revised down by as much as 911,000 for the period ending in March 2025, which is a more severe adjustment than Wall Street originally expected. This is also the largest annual revision in over 20 years. This round of adjustments reflects an overly optimistic assessment of the U.S. labor market over the past year, prompting investors and analysts to reassess the economic fundamentals.

Signs of employment slowdown have already emerged: only 73,000 jobs were added in July, and it further dropped to 22,000 in August.

In fact, the labor market showed obvious signs of fatigue as early as this summer. According to previously released data, non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, and plummeted further to 22,000 in August, indicating nearly stagnant growth. Such data also caused a shock on the political front. On the day the July report was released, U.S. President Trump swiftly replaced the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, demonstrating a high sensitivity and dissatisfaction with the weak employment numbers.

Dimon: The economy is slowing down, but it is still difficult to conclude whether a recession is imminent.

Regarding this data, Dimon stated during the interview: “I think the economy is weakening, but whether it is heading into a recession, I'm not sure.” He pointed out that JPMorgan has first-hand data from consumers, businesses, and global trade, which provides a more comprehensive view. “Most consumers are still employed and continue to spend, although confidence may have taken some hits.” He added that there are many mixed signals in the economy, including weak consumption and still robust corporate profits.

Will interest rate policies change anything? Dimon: Probably not much impact.

Will the Federal Reserve adjust its policy in response to a weakening economy? Dimon believes that the Fed “is very likely” to lower the benchmark interest rate at its meeting later this month, but he also admits that even if rates are cut, the impact on the real economy may be limited. This indicates that the current U.S. economy faces not only interest rate issues but also multiple challenges including employment, consumer confidence, and global demand.

Market confidence may be shaken, as businesses and investors await the development of the situation.

As one of the most influential bankers on Wall Street, Dimon often has a forward-looking view of the economy. Although he has previously warned of potential risks that did not materialize immediately, the significant revision of this employment data has turned “economic slowdown” from a prediction into a reality.

Investors and businesses are now facing a more uncertain market environment: weakening consumer confidence, a stalling labor market, and limited policy flexibility. Will the U.S. head towards a recession, or is it just a short-term weakness? The next few months will be a crucial observation period.

This article suggests that the impact of interest rate cuts is minimal? JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns: significant revisions to employment data and rising recession risks. First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.