Bitcoin's "Red September" has arrived! Historical data reveals why it determines the Crypto Assets cycle.

The “red month” of Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching. Historical data shows that since 2013, in the past 11 years, BTC has recorded a fall in September for 8 of those years. This pattern has made traders highly vigilant: will BTC repeat history this September, or will it break the curse?

Why is September so unfriendly to Bitcoin?

Historical rule: Since 2013, the probability of a fall in September is as high as 72% (8 out of 11 years are negative).

Speculated reason:

Profit-taking: Retail investors lock in profits after the summer rally.

Cash demand: payment for autumn tuition fees, tax planning, and other real expenses.

Self-fulfilling prophecy: Traders expect a fall, adopting conservative strategies, further pushing down prices.

It is worth noting that the pullback in September is usually not significant and often lays the groundwork for a rebound in the fourth quarter. For example, in October 2020, BTC soared from $10,800 to $13,800, an increase of over 27%.

August Review: Peaks and Falls Coexist

In August 2025, the BTC trend can be described as dramatic:

August 14: Created a historic new high of 124,533 USD

Two weeks later: a fall of 11%, reaching 110,000 USD

Reason: Dormant whales sold 24,000 BTC, causing the spot price to fall below $109,000 and triggering the largest liquidation wave of the year.

Clearing scale: Nearly 900 million USD in derivative positions were wiped out, of which 90% were long positions (BTC clearing 150 million USD, ETH clearing 320 million USD)

Ethereum (ETH) is relatively resistant to falling, even with an 8% drop, it still holds above the 100-day moving average.

Three Major Possible Scenarios in September (Cas Abbé Analysis)

Interval Repair (Probability 40%)

The price is consolidating between 110,000 and 120,000 US dollars.

Leverage ratio decreases, institutions gradually build positions.

Lay a healthy foundation for the Q4 rebound

Second Impact (Probability 35%)

Fall below 110,000 USD, triggering a new round of liquidation.

May test $100,000, clear remaining leverage

Historically, such pullbacks are often accompanied by strong bottoms.

Quick Recovery (Probability 25%)

Institutions are actively buying, pushing it up to 117,000–118,000 USD.

Bullish sentiment returns in advance

Key Signals Traders Should Focus On

On-chain data: changes in fund inflow and active addresses

Macro Events: Federal Reserve September Policy Meeting, Interest Rate Cut Expectations

Options Market: Positions and Implied Volatility Changes Before Expiration on September 27

Conclusion

September has historically been a month of both risks and opportunities for Bitcoin. While historical patterns are a cause for caution, they are not unbreakable. This year’s variables include whether institutional funds will take advantage of the dip, and whether macroeconomic policies will send positive signals. For traders, the key in September lies in being flexible—both to guard against the pullback risks of a “Red September” and to be prepared for a possible Q4 rebound.