Is September a good opportunity to buy the dip on Ethereum? Historical data + technical analysis suggest it may hit 7,000 USD by the end of the year!

Ethereum (ETH) encountered resistance and fell back after reaching the $5,000 mark in August, as profit-taking pressure weakened short-term long positions momentum. However, historical data and technical structure suggest that the pullback in September may be the golden opportunity for positioning ahead of the year-end market.

Short-term pressure: September may continue the selling sentiment

1. Large CEX trading data is bearish

Cumulative net short positions: fell to below -2.4 billion USD, indicating that market orders are dominant and sentiment is bearish.

Open Interest (OI): Decreased from 11 billion USD in August to 9 billion USD, reflecting a reduction in ETH exposure.

Interpretation: Traders are reducing positions, and short-term upward momentum is limited.

2. Validator Redemption Pressure

(Source: Validatorqueue)

Redemption queue: A record-breaking 986,408 ETH queued for withdrawal, with a wait time of 17 days and 3 hours.

Investor Grubles warns: “Every day there are new holders waiting to exit, this is not a good sign.”

Interpretation: September may face large-scale unlocking and selling pressure.

Historical Data: Weak in September, Strong in Q4

(Source: Coinglass)

1. September historical performance is weak

Since 2016, the average pullback rate of ETH in September is -6.42%, with a median of -12.55%.

2. Q4 has always been the golden quarter

Average return rate in October +4.77%

Average return rate in November +7.88%

Average monthly return rate in December +6.85%

The average return rate for the entire Q4 exceeded 23%.

Interpretation: The pullback in September often paves the way for an increase in Q4.

Technical Analysis: Amplifier Pattern Targets $6,800–$7,000

(Source: Trading View)

Analyst Axel Bitblaze predicts: “After breaking the bullish structure of 4 years, ETH may pull back to $4,200 in September, and then soar to $6,800–7,000 in Q4.”

Type: Bullish Broadening Formation

Potential trend: pullback → rebound breakthrough → new high by the end of the year

Short-term key levels:

Support: $4,200

Resistance: $5,000 → $6,800

Potential Catalysts and Risks

Bullish Factors

Q4 Historic Strong Performance

Capital inflow after the release of redemption pressure

If the macro environment turns towards easing (interest rate cuts)

Risk Factors

Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 17:

Interest rate cuts → Support for ETH and other risk assets

Maintaining high interest rates → Intensifies selling pressure

Global macroeconomic and regulatory policy variables

Conclusion and Investment Strategy

Short-term: September pullback or test of the $4,200 support, suitable for gradual positioning.

Medium to long-term: If history repeats itself, Q4 is expected to drive ETH to challenge 6,800–7,000 USD.

Risk Control: Pay attention to the actual impact of Federal Reserve policies and redemption pressures, and avoid over-leveraging to chase highs.