User churn is accelerating, but derivatives traders are taking heavy positions in long orders for Mantle (MNT).

The price of Mantle (MNT) fell 8.45% on August 27, reporting at $1.14, continuing the recent downtrend. However, there is a clear differentiation in the market: on-chain data shows that users are continuously withdrawing, with demand and usage declining, but derivatives traders are increasing their long positions against the trend, betting that MNT will experience a rebound.

On-chain user attrition: Demand cooling pressure intensifies

According to Artemis data, the daily active addresses of MNT have dropped to 10,700, with daily transaction volume reduced to 199,300 transactions, and each user averaging only 18.6 transactions.

What is more concerning is that the number of returning customers has fallen to 9,900, indicating a very low user retention rate. Analysts warn that as the number of returning customers decreases, on-chain activity may further shrink, putting continued pressure on prices.

Derivatives market bullish sentiment is high

In stark contrast to the quietness on-chain, the bullish sentiment in the derivatives market is heating up.

Long/Short Ratio: According to Coinalyze data, long positions account for as much as 68.9%, indicating that most leveraged traders are betting on a price increase.

Financing rate: has turned positive at 0.0078%, meaning that long positions are willing to pay a premium to maintain their positions, which is usually a signal for the continuation of a bullish trend.

Analysts point out that if leveraged long positions continue to surge, MNT is expected to regain market dominance in the short term.

Technical Analysis: Two Potential Trends

According to the CoinGlass heat map, the current liquidity distribution of MNT suggests two possible scenarios:

1. fall then rebound

The price may first test the liquidity cluster below $1.14, clear selling pressure, and then form a new demand zone, laying the foundation for a rebound.

2. Direct Rebound

If the buying pressure is strong, MNT may directly sweep through the liquidity cluster above the current price, driving the price to rebound quickly.

However, there is still an unfilled liquidity area below, and the risk of a pullback remains.

Conclusion

Mantle is currently in a contradictory situation where the on-chain fundamentals are weak, but the sentiment in the derivatives market is high. The short-term trend will depend on whether leveraged long positions can continue to push the price past the resistance level, and whether on-chain activity can recover. For investors, this is a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, containing both rebound opportunities and pullback risks. For more real-time market information and in-depth analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.