Ethereum futures data calms down, on-chain indicators heat up! ETH price recovery signal exposed.

After experiencing a cumulative fall of 15.1% over six days, Ethereum (ETH) stabilized around $4,070. Although the big dump wiped out $817 million in bullish leveraged positions, the futures and options markets indicate that traders are not panicking, with the annualized futures premium remaining steady above 5%. Meanwhile, on-chain data presents a different picture—transaction fees and total Lock-up Position (TVL) continue to rise, demonstrating strong network demand and providing a solid foundation for the recovery of ETH prices.

Futures Market: Calmly Face Price Correction

(6-month ETH futures annual premium, source: Laevitas)

During the process of ETH price falling from the peak to $4,070, the annualized premium in the futures market remained above 5%, indicating that professional traders are not concerned about further falls.

The monthly futures prices are usually higher than the spot prices to reflect the longer settlement period, but since January, this indicator has not released any significant bullish signals. Even though ETH doubled and rose by 100% from July 1 to August 13, traders’ optimistic sentiment has not fully recovered.

Macroeconomic Pressure: Economic Uncertainty Suppresses Risk Appetite

(Deribit 30-day ETH options, source: Laevitas)

The cautiousness of traders stems from the macroeconomic background. The inflation rate in the United States remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, while economic growth data shows divergence. Technology stocks are pressured by concerns over high valuations, and the Nasdaq index has fallen for two consecutive days.

Ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s upcoming speech, the market generally reduced risk positions, fearing that a more hawkish monetary policy stance would further suppress asset prices.

On-chain Data: Ethereum Demand Continues to Heat Up

(Blockchain ranking based on seven-day costs, source: Nansen)

Unlike the neutral sentiment in the futures market, on-chain data shows that the fundamentals of ETH remain strong. According to DefiLlama data, Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) market share in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space reaches 60%, firmly holding the top position in the industry.

The 7-day transaction fee revenue reached $11.2 million on Wednesday, a 38% increase from the previous week, far exceeding Solana (+3%) and BNB Chain (-3%). In the past 30 days, Ethereum’s trading volume on decentralized exchanges reached $129.7 billion, highlighting its dominance in on-chain trading activities.

Price Outlook: $4,700 Still in Sight

Despite the lack of obvious bullish momentum in the market, derivatives data shows that professional traders remain confident in the medium to long-term trend of ETH. If macro pressures ease and on-chain activity continues to grow, ETH is expected to challenge the $4,700 mark again.

In the short term, $4,100 is a key support level, and if it falls, it may trigger more profit-taking; while a breakthrough at $4,500 could attract a new round of chasing high buy orders.

Conclusion

The calm in the ETH futures market contrasts sharply with the activity in on-chain data, indicating that the recovery potential of Ethereum may be underestimated. As macroeconomic uncertainties gradually fade, on-chain demand and the dominance of DeFi may become the core driving forces for ETH’s return to high levels. For more real-time market data and on-chain analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.