Bitcoin aims for $500,000, Tuur Demeester predicts an epic institutional bull run

Bitcoin BTC is currently in a “mid-term strong” phase, far from reaching the peak of a bull run. Veteran Bitcoin investors Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research’s latest report indicates that, driven by a surge in institutional demand, national adoption, and favourable macroeconomic conditions, the price of Bitcoin is expected to increase 4 to 10 times in the next few years, ultimately breaking the 500,000 USD mark.

Bitcoin enters the “mid-term strong” phase

According to the report “How to Prepare for the Bitcoin Boom” released by Adamant Research, the current market is not at its peak, but rather in a mid-term phase of “silent power.” The report predicts that the price of Bitcoin is still expected to pump 4 to 10 times from the current level, which means that in the coming years, Bitcoin could potentially break through $500,000.

On-chain data shows that large holders (whales) have not engaged in large-scale sell-offs, and the net holdings of holders have remained stable, which is significantly different from the selling pressure characteristics observed in the later stages of historical bull runs.

On-chain data and market sentiment support pump

The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) indicator shows that currently 50% to 70% of the Bitcoin supply is in an unrealized profit state, which belongs to a healthy mid-term optimistic range, rather than an overheated late-stage sentiment.

In addition, past market events such as the theft of 120,000 BTC from Bitfinex in 2016 and the liquidation of 80,000 BTC from Mt. Gox in July 2025 had limited impact on prices, demonstrating the market’s strong ability to absorb shocks.

Institutions and countries adopting to promote long-term value

With the support of the Trump administration, the United States has adopted an active Bitcoin policy, including the establishment of a national strategic reserve, the passage of the GENIUS Act, and the promotion of spot Bitcoin ETF adoption, with the current ETF holdings reaching 1.4 million BTC.

Since El Salvador designated Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, it has prompted other countries to explore Bitcoin strategies, creating a global adoption ripple effect. These initiatives have reinforced Bitcoin’s status as a “long-term store of value” asset.

Investment Allocation and Risk Management Recommendations

The report suggests that investors allocate Bitcoin based on their risk tolerance:

5%: As systemic risk insurance

10%: Speculative hedging in a diversified investment portfolio

20% - 50%: High Confidence and “Early Retirement” Strategy

In terms of custody, the report advocates for the adoption of a collaborative multi-signature (Multi-Sig) setup, balancing self-sovereignty and security, making it particularly suitable for new market entrants.

Conclusion

Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research believe that Bitcoin is currently in the mid-stage of a historic bull run, with institutional adoption, government policy support, and macroeconomic tailwinds driving it towards the target of $500,000. For investors, this may be an important window to participate in the Bitcoin boom, rather than the end of the bull run.