Interest rate cuts and ceasefires, behind the favourable information is a rebound or a reversal?

Written by: KKK

On the morning of June 24, as Trump announced that Israel and Iran had fully agreed to a full ceasefire, the crypto secondary market recovered after last night’s risk aversion of fearing an escalating war. BTC briefly fell below $100,000 before rebounding above the $106,000 mark, and many altcoins are waiting for an opportunity to recover. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, BTC has continued to pull back for nearly a week, hitting a low of $98,200 yesterday, and quickly rebounding to $106075 today, an increase of more than 8.02% during the period.

The Fed’s dovish tone reemerges, with Fed Governor Bowman indicating support for a rate cut as early as July. Since the tariffs imposed by Trump on April 2, there has been a lack of obvious inflationary pressure, which may allow the Fed to cut rates again.

Affected by the positive news of the formal ceasefire between Iran and Israel, the cryptocurrency market has seen a significant rebound, with the market cap rising by 6% from its low point. The Federal Reserve’s expectations of interest rate cuts have also boosted market sentiment, as the “easing” brought by rate cuts is expected to initiate a new round of market trends. What will be the subsequent trend of BTC? Let’s see what traders in the market think.

Macro analysis

@Phyrex_Ni

The more central driver of today’s long and short double explosion in the market may be the rapid change in oil price expectations, especially the market’s reassessment of the possibility of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Polymarket, this probability has now dropped to about 30%, reflecting the market’s perception that Iran lacks the ability to actually blockade, which in turn has weakened fears of rising oil prices, sending oil prices down to around $68.

In terms of the cryptocurrency market, although BTC has experienced significant volatility, on-chain data does not show obvious panic. Trading mainly focuses on short-term bottom-fishers, while long-term investors remain cautious. On the support side, the range of $93,000–$98,000 remains solid, while above $105,000 there is potential for a correction due to short-term buying pressure. Overall, oil prices and war expectations are still key variables determining the volatility of risk assets.

Last Friday, the inflow data for BTC ETFs remained normal. Although there were signs of escalating conflict at that time, investors were generally still optimistic and did not sell on a large scale.

However, the data for ETH is not very good, especially since there has been no net inflow for 29 consecutive days, and for most of the time, there has been a net outflow of more than 8,000 ETH from major player BlackRock. This has led to an overall poor situation on Friday, with the Huaxia ETF in Hong Kong also experiencing a net outflow of over 900 ETH. Overall, at least for now, ETH does not seem to have the ability to break out independently. Although it did have a decent rise recently, as we have been emphasizing, without sufficient liquidity, the price cannot maintain a breakout rise many times, and without liquidity, it is also difficult to drive the altcoin season that many investors are looking forward to.

@Cato_CryptoM

Currently, the market shows an optimistic performance regarding geopolitical and potential risks. The mainstream view in the market is that Iran and the United States are just “playing along.” Geopolitical risks and energy price risks have temporarily eased, but this does not mean that all risks are gone. If Iran takes actions that exceed market norms, all viewpoints will be overturned. I prefer to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

As for the price of BTC, I also agree that the impact of geopolitical risks on the price has gradually weakened. However, the question remains: where will the short-term upward momentum for BTC come from after the geopolitical risks are resolved?

If the interest rate cut in July is indeed true, it could stimulate market sentiment. It’s not about being extremely bearish on the market, but rather considering whether there will be a resting phase after the short-term prices break new highs.

Technical Analysis Faction

@biupa

Although the market has rebounded due to positive news, BTC faces resistance at 106000, and it is recommended to close most of the bottom positions. While there is a bearish outlook to some extent, a significant drop is not expected; it may enter a new round of trends after interest rate cuts.

Looking at it horizontally, it seems that it has not “broken down” from the upper range. Using horizontal support or indicators like VP TPO, one can indeed conclude that it has “not broken down.” For example, those who are bullish like Credibull base their views on this logic. (There is no concept of moving averages on the charts of such traders.)

For me personally, more important than the sideways range is the moving average. It can be seen that June 6 is the first time that the VEGAS is touched downwards by 2x, and it is also quickly retracted after the pin. The probability of the first breakdown is very high (one blow, then decline, three and exhaustion); The moving averages are also still diverging upwards with bulls. It is currently at the same price level, but the price is already below 2x VEGAS, and both 1x VEGAS and MA100 EMA200 have turned downward. Similarly, the second touch of the moving average did not have a noticeable pin retraction action, but instead consolidated below the channel. So in my opinion, it is not very optimistic.

Structurally, there is a large segment of a short position (not officially established yet, as no lower low has been reached) and a small segment of a short position (from June 10 to the present), creating two nested short structures.

At the order book level, since the rise on April 10, there has been no large number of pending orders in the spot below. The previous times, such as the bottom on June 6 and the bottom on June 13, were all based on factors such as moving averages. Because the price is in the top range and is “still in a bullish trend”, it is natural that you cannot wait for a large number of spot orders below to enter the market. But if the bullish trend ends here and returns to a wide range, we still need to enter the market according to a large number of pending orders in the order book (the main basis for buying bottoms last year), which will probably need to be considered until 98000.

Where can I buy the bottom? The order book level is in the 98000 range, and the structural support is in the weekly FVG 100600-97900 range and the daily level FVG 95700-95000 below. The MA100 at the daily level is at 95600 (currently in an uptrend). These three indicators are independent of each other, but if they are met at the same time, the win rate will not be low.

What to do with copycats? At present, it has fallen below 220b and there is no significant rebound, and the structure is also somewhat broken, and the corresponding key supports below include 200b (March 11 pin/April 16 pin position), 193b (weekly level oblique trendline support), 186b (daily level FVG/April 7 front low) and so on. If Bitcoin falls to the 97,000 range, all three positions are possible.

@CryptosLaowai

BTC rebounded shortly after reaching 98k here. 98 is not a significant support level; it is just a rebound after a short-term drop below 100k that swept away a lot of liquidity, and the downward movement will continue. The currently visible resistance levels are 101500 and 103500. If it reaches these levels, it would be a good position to add to short positions.

BTC 103500 has reached the expected level, even higher. Although driven by news, its essence in the market is a short squeeze. The news-driven momentum has pushed it higher. There is significant resistance around 106, a critical point for bulls and bears. It wouldn’t be surprising if it returns to the 9xxx range in a day or two. The rate has turned positive, indicators are overbought, and the pressure levels for 4h and 1d have all been reached. Recent market trends have been characterized by sharp declines followed by rapid surges.

@roger73005305

The current situation is that the more it rises, the more bearish it looks. The market needs a healthy pullback, and the outflow of funds is accelerating.

@market_beggar

Pin STH-RP, the short-term support level has been reached. It seems that the market is quite face-saving for STH-RP, and the following quote is the chart drawn yesterday, which was mentioned in the weekly report yesterday: the position of STH-RP is at 98,297, and this morning it happened to be at 98,200.

The current short-term support level has been reached. If it continues to test downward for a second time, the acceptable margin of error for bulls roughly falls between 93.5K and 98K.

The current price has re-established itself above the previous low, and we can also see some taker buy activity, but the trading volume is performing average. Perhaps waiting for the market sentiment after the U.S. stock market opens will be a more reliable reference.

Data Analysis Group

@Murphychen888

By comparing the data from June 22 and June 5, we can find that when the price of BTC also retraced to around 100,000 USD, the scale of new demand in the market was vastly different. The demand scale on June 5 even exceeded the previous peak on April 27, which also laid the foundation for BTC to rebound back to 110,000 USD again.

However, I did not see similar data performance during the pullback on June 22. Perhaps it is because the current geopolitical conflicts and macro background have made funds more cautious, but in any case, the weakening of demand will inevitably affect the strength of the rebound, which may be less than the last time.

If there are still no significant changes in the next few days, BTC is likely to continue its weak performance. For those who are buying the dip on the left side, it is advisable to manage your positions well.

@CryptoPainter_X

After a series of positive news, BTC confirmed a false breakdown and exhibited price behavior that directly rebounded to the middle track; at the same time, the spot premium significantly increased, and the funding rate noticeably decreased, indicating that buying mainly came from the spot market, while some futures bulls closed their positions.

The next idea is still clear: if it stays above the middle track, continue to look for a bullish trend towards the upper range; if it cannot stay above, the price may need to test 102k once again.

The main data that can be used for early judgments includes:

1. If the funding rate remains negative, the probability of a mid-band breakout will increase;
2. If the spot premium index does not drop significantly during the mid-track oscillation phase, the probability of a mid-track breakout will increase; If neither of the above conditions is met, the probability of the price being blocked at the middle track and retracing back to 102k will increase.

A strong rebound overnight confirmed the logic of the 8000 spot buy orders entering early, so the current spot market leans towards the dominant position. The incomplete price behavior of the futures market after two consecutive liquidations indicates that the dominant force in futures is declining.

What can be seen now is that the residual short liquidity at 107k is very close to being liquidated. If the market sentiment is good tonight, then this position is likely to be reached. Based on the price action after the liquidation at 107k, we can consider several short-term trading ideas:

1. If the pin liquidation occurs after 107k, forming a breakout, then the price is likely to initiate a pullback, targeting the starting point of the previous upward move, which is around 102k.
2. If the price does not show a significant pullback and instead continues to oscillate upward, then the price action here is likely targeting the large short liquidity at high levels, with the goal around 112000~113000.

Many times, a market that breaks new highs does not gradually rise, but suddenly reverses at the end of a long downward trend, shooting up to a new high in one go, completing the liquidity grab. Therefore, whether bullish or bearish, one must be cautious of this deliberate price behavior, which is a common phenomenon in the distribution zone at the top.

Personally, I actually hope that the price will first pull back to 102k, gain effective support, and then reopen the bearish liquidation market. After all, this scenario is relatively stable and there is a possibility of a new bullish trend afterwards. However, if the price simply rises recklessly to clear the shorts, then the probability of a “sharp rise followed by a fall” will significantly increase. Once the high-level liquidity is cleared, I will definitely consider shorting.

@DL_W99

Last night, geopolitical tensions escalated, leading to a panic reaction during a low liquidity period, causing a drop to around 98,500. Now that the US stock market has opened, oil prices have fallen, and BTC has rebounded somewhat, oscillating above 100,000. Last night, SOL also broke through the support level of 140, and it is now in a new support range of around 123-138.

Returning to the data of SOL, the turnover rate over the 3 days from Friday to Sunday is not high, with more than 19 million chips exchanged during these three days, as shown in red in the chart. It remains in the recent volatility range, with short-term buying chips above 150 exiting the market. Other longer-term chips in different ranges have seen very few exits.

Medium and long-term positions have been relatively stable after a few months. The price of each is still a few hundred to a few thousand pieces, not much. Judging from the stacking of chips and short-term change of chips, at $144 is still a large pile-up, with more than 45 million chips, but 140-147 has become a short-term pressure range, and the new support range has come to around 123-138.

Currently, the upper half of the 123-138 range is oscillating along with the market rebound. Although market sentiment has not further panicked, for the already weak SOL, the oscillation and fluctuation following the market do not indicate an independent trend.

@AxelAdlerJr

Since April 13, the realized market value of the 0-1 month holding group has increased by 66 billion dollars, indicating that recent buyers are actively taking profits. However, despite approximately 720,000 BTC being sold, the Bitcoin price remains within a narrow range, suggesting that there are new buyers continuously absorbing the selling pressure. This reflects the current market’s buying strength is relatively solid.