Meme coin surges 123%: The alt season has really arrived, or is it a "dead cat bounce" trap?

Author: Wenser

Original Title: Shanzhai Season or Shanzhai G? The Dilemma of a “Partial Bull Market”

With frequent positive news from market policies, the crypto market has finally started to warm up gradually, and altcoins have also迎来了 their “second spring”, especially Meme coins performing remarkably: OKX market shows that MOODENG, GOAT, WIF, BOME, and MEW have increased by 123.09%, 57.36%, 26.24%, 24.84%, and 22.64% respectively in the past 24 hours. This wave of increase alongside BTC, ETH, and SOL has many diamond hands shouting “It’s back, it’s all back!” while simultaneously watching their significantly retraced positions bleed in their hearts.

Regarding the future market trend, Odaily Planet Daily will summarize and analyze the recent driving factors for the market’s rise and representative industry opinions for readers’ reference.

Macro Direct Benefits: China and the U.S. Shake Hands and Make Peace, Federal Reserve Releases Rate Cut Expectations

In recent days, the surge in the market has undoubtedly been directly induced by the tariff and business negotiations between China and the United States. In addition, benefiting from a series of previous actions by Trump, the Federal Reserve has also softened its previously tough stance in the face of a potential economic recession. With the easing of rhetoric, expectations for interest rate cuts have sharply increased this year, and the positive policies have led the market to turn bullish, with buying power quickly overpowering selling pressure.

China and the United States have reached substantial progress

This morning Beijing time, the White House announced that the United States has reached a trade agreement with China in Geneva. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson stated that negotiations were held in Geneva, Switzerland, lasting two days, and achieved “substantial progress.” Both sides expressed satisfaction with the results of the negotiations, believing that the differences were not as large as imagined, and the speed of reaching the agreement was relatively fast. U.S. officials are optimistic about the agreement, believing it will help address the trade deficit issue. The Chinese side’s lead in the China-U.S. economic and trade talks, Vice Premier He Lifeng, also stated during the press conference that the high-level talks were candid, in-depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and achieving substantial progress. Both sides unanimously agreed to establish a China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism.

After experiencing the previous farce of the “154% high tariffs,” China and the United States have finally sat down to negotiate calmly again and reached a phased consensus, which undoubtedly provides a sense of reassurance for the economies of both countries and the cryptocurrency market.

The Fed’s tone is softening, and a rate cut is expected this year

On May 8, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that in certain cases, it is appropriate to lower interest rates this year, while in other cases, it is not appropriate, and I cannot confidently say that I know the appropriate path for interest rates. At that time, based on futures prices, the likelihood of a rate cut by July was around 75%.

At the same time, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller previously stated that there are upward risks to inflation and unemployment rates, and the economy may experience a slowdown in the short term; on the other hand, “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos analyzed that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed expectations that rate cuts could alleviate the economic weakness possibly brought by Trump’s tariffs, suggesting that the Fed would only consider rate cuts after seeing evidence of significant economic slowdown, and these cuts could be rapid.

Overall, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the second half of this year has greatly increased, thereby further repairing the previously oversold market sentiment.

Institutions Continue to Accumulate BTC: Public Companies Become the Main Force in Hoarding Coins, BlackRock Leads the Pack

As the most prominent BTC buying group in this cycle, listed companies have become one of the fastest-growing groups in terms of holding cryptocurrency in the market; asset management institutions and ETF index funds are also in a rapid growth phase.

Metaplanet today increased its holdings by 1,241 BTC, worth approximately 182 million USD.

The Japanese listed company Metaplanet has increased its holdings by 1,241 BTC, worth approximately 182 million USD. As of now, the company holds a total of 6,796 BTC, valued at around 704 million USD.

Strategy continues to buy, with an annual return rate exceeding 14%.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor released information regarding the Bitcoin Tracker again last night. According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses information about increasing Bitcoin holdings on the second day after related news is announced.

On May 5, it was reported that Strategy purchased 1,895 Bitcoins (totaling $180.3 million) at a price of $95,167 between April 28 and May 4. At the same time, it stated that as of May 2025, the Bitcoin return has reached 14.0%. As of May 4, 2025, it holds 555,450 Bitcoins (BTC), with an average cost of $68,550, totaling a value of $38.08 billion.

Indian listed company Jetking enters the BTC market, aiming to hold 18,000 coins by 2030.

Harsh Bharwani, CEO of Jetking, a listed company in India, previously said that the company plans to gradually increase its holdings of BTC through a variety of financing tools, aiming to achieve a position of 18,000 BTC by 2030. He revealed that he will expand the fundraising to about 180 BTC in the next six months, with a target of 1,800 BTC in the next year, and complete the final holding plan by 2030.

BlackRock recently increased its holdings by 5,613 BTC, bringing the total Bitcoin holdings to over 620,000.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, on May 6, BlackRock increased its holdings by 5,613 BTC, worth $529.5 million. Currently, the total Bitcoin holdings have exceeded 620,000, reaching 620,252 BTC, valued at $58.51 billion. Since April 21, BlackRock has purchased a total of 47,064 BTC.

On May 7, it was reported that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) ranked sixth in the U.S. ETF fund inflow list with a net inflow of $6.96 billion, surpassing the world’s largest gold ETF (GLD) which has $6.5 billion.

New Addition: Futu opens BTC, ETH, and USDT deposit functions, traditional financial applications integrate into the cryptocurrency system

In addition to the above-mentioned cliché buying power, the most eye-catching new variable in the crypto market recently is undoubtedly the fact that Futu APP, which is a traditional financial application, opens up BTC, ETH, USDT deposit functions.

Futu has launched the deposit function for BTC, ETH, and USDT.

Last week, Futu Securities International (Hong Kong) Limited announced the official launch of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT) deposit services. Qualified investors can complete deposits and trade cryptocurrencies (‘Crypto’) through the one-stop trading platform Futu NiuNiu to obtain funds, allowing them to invest in more asset classes or withdraw safely. Investors can manage Crypto + TradFi assets (traditional financial assets, including Hong Kong, US, and Japanese stocks, options, ETFs, funds, bonds, and other diversified assets) through a single app, enabling quick conversion between virtual and traditional asset markets.

Is it a Shanzhai season or a Shanzhai G? The market is quite divided and is still in the stage of oversold recovery.

As BTC, ETH, and SOL experienced a slight decline after a recent significant rise, the enthusiasm for altcoin season in the crypto market has reignited. However, there is a considerable divergence in the opinions of industry representatives regarding whether we are about to enter an altcoin season. Some believe that altcoins will continue to attract liquidity that spills over from mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, leading to a rise; while others argue that altcoins have already dropped 80%-90% from their highs earlier this year and that the recent performance is merely a “dead cat bounce.”

Bullish camp: Trader Eugene expects strong rebounds in altcoins.

Last Saturday, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted that although he correctly judged the direction of the recent price increase, he suffered poor actual gains due to being stopped out prematurely during the fluctuations. Looking ahead, this increase to $100,000 has confirmed the previous support reversal at $90,000. The market is now likely to challenge historical highs again, which was not originally anticipated, but funds from micro strategies and ETFs seem to be flowing in continuously.

In contrast, until yesterday, most veteran players in the crypto space were still on the sidelines (even shorting). As expectations for a new historical high reignite enthusiasm in the market, a strong rebound in the total market capitalization of altcoins is expected.

Bullish camp: Analysts say the mainstream crowd in the market consists of short-term traders, and the altcoin season has arrived.

Analyst 2 Lambroz believes that the peak season for altcoins may have arrived, but he notes that market dynamics have changed. “People want to buy in, but there is a lack of confidence in any strong narrative.” He pointed out that, unlike in 2021, there are currently no signs of retail investors entering the market. Traders’ capital turnover is faster, with almost no motivation to hold long positions. Technical trader Moustache has a more optimistic view. He shared a chart showing that altcoins repeatedly go through accumulation phases, followed by explosive growth. According to his analysis, the current structure is similar to that of 2016 and 2020. “The 2025 altcoin season has officially begun.”

Neutral faction: CryptoQuant founder claims previous judgment was wrong, should focus on incremental funding from institutions.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that his judgment two months ago regarding the end of the BTC bull market was incorrect. Current on-chain data shows that the selling pressure on BTC is easing, while large-scale inflows of institutional funds, such as ETFs, are driving changes in market structure. He pointed out that in the past, the Bitcoin market was mainly composed of established whales, miners, and retail investors, making it easier to identify market tops; however, with the participation of ETFs, MicroStrategy, institutions, and government entities, the traditional logic of “whales selling triggering a top” is becoming ineffective. Ki emphasized that in the new environment, more attention should be paid to the inflow of incremental institutional funds rather than old selling pressure signals.

Bearish faction: Altcoins have dropped 90%, the golden age is still far off.

At the same time, skeptics still exist. Commentator Rekt Fencer pointed out that since last December, most altcoins have dropped by 90%. This week’s 10% slight rebound has triggered excessive optimism, prompting him to mock this rebound. “This is the altcoin golden era we’ve been waiting for.”

Summary: A slight rebound in Meme coins does not indicate the arrival of the altcoin season

According to Coingecko data, BTC’s market share is still around 60%. Overall, it’s still hard to say that we have entered an altcoin season; rather, the previous term “altcoin G” is more fitting. Currently, many of the coins showing good upward momentum are more indicative of a “local bull market.”

As Arthur Hayes mentioned in early May, “The question I get asked the most lately is, when is altcoin season coming? And the answer is sometimes it’s right in front of you. HYPE.”