On April 30, the Federal Reserve’s favored PCE inflation data stalled for the first time in nearly a year in March, and consumer spending was strong, which was a welcome relief before the market expected tariffs to generally push prices higher. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the PCE index has stagnated since February. Excluding food and energy, core PCE also remained flat, at its most modest level in nearly five years. Inflation-adjusted real personal consumption expenditures rose 0.7% m/m in March, following an upward revision from the previous month, suggesting that households are spending aggressively to circumvent new tariffs. The data capped off a quarter in which the U.S. economy contracted for the first time since 2022 due to a surge in pre-tariff imports and more modest consumer spending.
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