3月3日消息，预测市场Kalshi因伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊去世事件引发争议，其“死亡条款”细则导致押注下台的交易者收益微乎其微。交易员原以为在2月28日前押注哈梅内伊下台已稳赚不赔，但Kalshi强调，除死亡以外的其他方式才算正式下台，并将根据去世消息确认前的最后交易价格结算。Kalshi首席执行官随后向用户致歉，并宣布退还相关费用。
随着美国和以色列对伊朗发动联合空袭，预测市场交易量激增，引发全球关注。Polymarket的国际平台上，六名新用户押注哈梅内伊下台，完成交易总额达120万美元，但其不受美国监管，KYC与AML流程缺失，使监管和内幕交易风险难以控制。Kalshi则要求用户通过身份验证，提高了市场规范性，但“死亡条款”仍引发用户不满。
分析师指出，预测市场面临的挑战不仅在于道德争议，也在于商业化运作与合规之间的平衡。缺乏严格KYC和AML流程的市场，机构投资者参与受限，市场难以正常化。美国参议员Chris Murphy批评部分人士可能从战争和死亡中牟利，并呼吁立法禁止此类交易，而白宫发言人否认特朗普团队涉及相关操作。
此次事件凸显预测市场在敏感政治事件中的风险与监管空白，也提醒交易者关注合约细则和结算规则，以免因条款疏漏造成意外损失。
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