Bitcoin Pullback Secrets – Santiment Warns the Pain Might Only Be Starting

Santiment has released a fresh report breaking down Bitcoin’s latest price action, and it offers a clear picture of what might come next. After reaching a new all-time high of $123,800 on August 13, Bitcoin has slipped about -8.8% over the past six weeks. The flagship crypto hit a 13-day low of $112,200 on Monday, sparking a surge in social chatter around “buying the dip.”

Retail Buying Fervor May Not Mean a Bottom Yet

Santiment points out that the sudden spike in buy-the-dip mentions is not automatically bullish. In fact, their historical data shows the opposite: when retail traders rush to call a bottom, prices often fall further first. The market typically reverses only when optimism fades and traders start panic selling. So while the dip-buying crowd is growing loud, true capitulation may still lie ahead.

Before the latest drop, Binance recorded its highest short-to-long ratio in over three months. That was a classic setup for a quick leg down. But after BTC hit $112.2K, traders swiftly flipped back to mildly long positions. Santiment notes that a sustained period of shorts outweighing longs is usually needed to spark the kind of short-squeeze rally that fuels major rebounds. So far, that critical ingredient hasn’t formed.

Social media sentiment has cooled from euphoria to fear as Bitcoin slipped under $114K. However, Santiment argues that fear levels remain too mild compared to past capitulation events – like the early-April drop tied to U.S. tariffs or June’s dip during geopolitical tensions. Those bottoms only formed after much deeper panic selling.

Source: X/@santimentfeed On-Chain Signals Show Underlying Strength

Despite the short-term caution, on-chain metrics hint at growing long-term strength.

MVRV data shows 30-day holders are now in the red for the first time since early September, historically a bullish entry point.

Whale accumulation is steady: since August 27, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have added over 56,000 coins.

Exchange balances keep shrinking, with 31,265 fewer BTC available for sale over the past four weeks. Both trends point to reduced sell pressure and confidence from large investors.

Read also: Bitcoin & Ethereum Had Their Run – Now Solana’s Big Chapter Is About to Open

What It Means for Buyers

Santiment views the current -8% pullback as modest by Bitcoin’s historical standards – far from the 15–20% drops that usually trigger broad capitulation. Still, their analysis supports a careful, dollar-cost averaging strategy for those looking to buy. Spreading purchases around key levels – such as $112K, $108K, $104K, $100K, and $96K – could capture more upside whether prices drift lower or rebound sooner.

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