[Bitcoin’s 10-year trend pattern and prediction of the fourth halving cycle] It is said that anything is beautiful as long as you invest in it, and there is nothing wrong with it as long as you are serious. The same goes for playing coins. As we all know, when Bitcoin was first issued in 2009, 1 US dollar could buy 1,047 Bitcoins. In November last year, the price reached 69,000 US dollars. The assets of 1 US dollar that year became more than 70 million US dollars. This is the charm of the currency circle, and any asset investment is incomparable to it.

Without further ado, let’s share the value of personal research. A careful study of ten years of history will reveal that the trend of Bitcoin is a mathematical logic problem. I discovered this a few years ago and it has been basically confirmed by actual combat, so I am sharing it now.
From 2011 to the present, Bitcoin has gone through a total of three cycles of ups and downs, that is, it has experienced 3 lowest points and 2 highest points. It is a regular parabola, as shown in the figure. It is currently in the range from the lowest point of the third round ($3122 on December 25, 2018) to the highest point of the third round. Because it is an upward range, no matter how you buy it, it will rise.
A. When may the highest point of the third round occur?
First of all, we will find that the interval between the three lowest points and the two highest points of Bitcoin in ten years is basically about 500 days, that is, about three years and 11 months to about four years. The time difference from the second round to the third round corresponding to the lowest point is almost 3 years and 11 months, and the highest point of the second round was December 17, 2017. Based on the lowest point period, the highest point of the third round is basically the same. The analogy can be roughly as follows: December 2017 + 3 years and 11 months = around November 2021. Therefore, the time when Bitcoin will reach its highest point in the third round will be around November 2021. Back to reality, combined with the current K-line adjustment cycle, the third round of halving cycle has ended in mid-November 2021, and 69,000 is the highest point of Bitcoin.
B. How high will Bitcoin rise to at the highest point in the third round?
First, from the lowest point in the first round to the highest point in the first round, it increased 582 times; from the lowest point in the second round to the highest point in the second round, it increased 129 times.
How many times may it rise from the lowest point to the highest point in the third round? 29 times. How is 29 times calculated? The highest point of the first round/the highest point of the second round: 582/129=4.5, the highest point of the third round and so on: 129/4.5=28.6. So maybe about 29 times. Therefore, it will most likely reach its highest point in November 2021: 3122*29=90538 US dollars. But the highest point in November was 69,000 US dollars, which means there are two possibilities: 1. The multiple margin has changed, and the margin in the third round is probably not 4.5; 2. The third round of halving cycle has not yet started in November 2021. End of the month, but no later than January 23, 2022.
C. When is the fourth halving cycle?
If the third round of halving cycle (December 2017-November 2021) has ended, then it has now entered the fourth round of halving cycle, which is running in the downward range. Combined with the third halving cycle, it can be calculated that Bitcoin’s fourth halving cycle is from November 2021 to January 2025. Bitcoin will reach the lowest point of this cycle around November 2023: 69000/5.18 =about 13,320 US dollars.
On November 2, 2020, when Bitcoin was $14,900, I decisively increased my position. Many people said that when the price was $7,000, you didn’t dare to buy it at such a high price. The results of it? The 3-month return rate is 460%. My reverse logical thinking is: the lowest point in the third round was US$3,122. If US$14,800 was the highest point at that time, then the lowest point in the third round only increased 4 times to the highest point, which is different from the 528 times increase in the first round and the second increase. The 128 times increase in the round is too far apart. Obviously it does not conform to the objective development laws.
Realizing this, this is the reason why I boldly jumped in when Bitcoin was at a high of $14,900 on November 2, 2020, without any worries.
C. Why does the rise and fall multiple of each cycle get lower and lower?
First round: 582 times; second round: 129 times; third round: 22 times (69000/3122). This is in line with the law that the larger the volume, the smaller the increase. Figuratively speaking, this rule is like swinging a long rope up and down. The farther away from you the end is, the smaller the fluctuations will be. Therefore, the further Bitcoin develops, the smaller the rise and fall multiples of each cycle will be. It is estimated that after the fourth round, its trend will become a small wave shape, and its rise and fall will become smaller and smaller. Finally, like funds, the risks will become smaller and smaller, and it will eventually become one of the most well-known rare resources for investment and financial management.