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$Bitcoin$ Ethereum next market analysis, market information summary and impact
There are three key factors that make us cautious about Bitcoin.
First, the Fed's hawkish policy stance is highly likely to lead institutional buyers to significantly reduce their purchases of Bitcoin ETFs.
Secondly, global liquidity is showing a downward trend, especially the liquidity decline denominated in US dollars, which suggests that Bitcoin may enter a period of consolidation, because the weakness of foreign currencies will bring more pressure to it.
Thirdly, the situation of technical indicators has also exacerbated our concerns: the weekly reversal indicator has been in overbought territory, the appearance of the monthly shooting star pattern (which is usually a signal of a potential market top), further highlights the risk of a recent Bitcoin pullback. However, sometimes more caution is needed, and the current situation reflects this trend.
After a highly optimistic period at the end of September, it is now important to focus on and manage the downside risks of Bitcoin. From a strategic perspective, the upcoming release of the Consumer Price Index next week may potentially drive a slight increase in Bitcoin before Trump takes office. However, Bitcoin may still face some pressure before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The monthly closing price will be a key factor to watch.
Market information affecting Bitcoin market
On Friday evening, the U.S. stock market and U.S. Treasuries experienced a sell-off, and the Federal Reserve did not sit idly by. Just an hour after the non-farm payroll data was released, 'Fed market rescue professional' Chicago Fed President Guolsby appeared urgently on CNBC.
Goolsbee said in an interview that this is a strong report, which makes me more confident that the job market is stabilizing at full employment. As long as the inflation data remains stable, interest rates will still be cut this year.
The market is in a state of 'good news is bad news' panic, and this sentence can definitely be rated as the 'most frightening sentence to the market' of the week.
In the end, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed with a decline of more than 1.5%.
So, all the gains this weekend are a trap for longs!
The trend of $大饼$ may usher in a turning point:
The big cake may have retraced to a key node, around 90000-92000 is a strong support level for the previous five declines, the market consensus is obvious, a large amount of bottom-fishing funds entering the market, indicating a strong rebound may occur.
Rebound expectations:
The pancake fell from a high point of 100,000, according to past trends, there is a chance of rebounding to around 98,000.
Key support level:
90,000 is an important support level for Bitcoin. If it falls below, it may trigger a waterfall-like plunge, but the possibility of directly falling below in the short term is small, with a high probability of rebounding first. However, if the subsequent US data is all negative, the market will face a severe test, but the Federal Reserve may intervene.
#ETH #BTC #ACT #TRUMP #xrp