Technical Analysis of BTC: Which Phase of the Bear Cycle?

It’s been a while since I analyzed the market purely from a technical perspective. Recently, I’ve been focusing a lot on short-term futures and altcoins, so today I want to take a step back and look at the medium- and long-term picture of BTC to see where the market stands in this bear cycle.
1️⃣ Long-Term Trend: The Bear Cycle Is Not Over Yet
If we follow historical patterns, BTC’s true bottom usually appears about 1–1.5 years before the next halving. Based on the current cycle, the bottom is likely to occur by the end of this year.
Additionally, on-chain data such as the average cost basis still remains above $40,000. This indicates that the market has not yet shed enough pressure and has not reached the “extreme pain” stage typically seen at cycle lows.
To be blunt: this bear phase is probably only halfway through.
Therefore, I disagree with opinions like “a slight rebound means the bull market is back.”
2️⃣ Medium-Term Trend: A Relief Rally That Pressures Shorts
Currently, after the second decline wave, BTC is in a sideways accumulation phase. On the surface, it looks very strong, but in reality, this could just be a “false strength” move.
Why? Because the short positions in derivatives are excessively high. When the majority leans in one direction, the market often moves against them to “shake them out.” Rapid and decisive rebounds in a bear market are often short squeezes—forcing short sellers to close their positions.
Historical cycles show that during bear markets, rebounds are usually very strong and can mislead many into thinking the trend has reversed. But then, prices tend to turn back down.
3️⃣ Key Resistance Zone: $80,000 – $83,000
The $80,000–$83,000 zone is an extremely important resistance area. It’s where many investors who were caught in previous positions are concentrated, and it’s also a major cost basis region for the market.
In a bear market, prices rarely give the majority an easy “get out” opportunity. When approaching this zone, selling pressure and profit-taking will be very strong.
The most likely scenario:
Prices continue upward to squeeze out the remaining shorts
Create the illusion of a breakout
Then reverse sharply
If BTC approaches the $80,000 mark, that could be an ideal zone to consider short positions aligned with the larger trend.
Conclusion
The bear cycle is not over yet
The long-term bottom may still be ahead
The current rally is more about short squeezing than trend reversal
The $80,000 zone is a critical resistance to watch
In a bear market, the most important thing is not excitement over price increases but maintaining calm and discipline.
Those who understand the cycle will patiently wait for opportunities. Those driven by emotions will easily become liquidity for the market.