Tomorrow’s US-Iran Negotiations: Gold Price Trend Analysis (4.10)

Current spot gold (London gold spot) is trading in a range around $4,760 per ounce, and the short-term direction is completely driven by the outcome of the negotiations.

1. Two scenario outlooks

Negotiations ease / agreement reached
Risk sentiment cools quickly, the gold safe-haven premium fades, and it will most likely pull back to the $4,650-$4,700 range. Support from rate-cut expectations is limited, so the near term is bearish.

Negotiations break down / conflict escalates
Safe-haven funds return, gold strengthens rapidly, breaks above $4,800, and pushes toward the $4,850-$4,900 area from above, returning to a strong long-dominated trend.

2. Trading recommendations

1. Before the negotiations: Keep a light position and stand by, don’t bet on direction
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2. After the outcome is finalized:
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- Easing: Reduce gold exposure / go short
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- Breakdown: Go long on gold decisively
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3. For the mid- to long term: Continuous gold purchases by central banks, and a weaker U.S. dollar, provide support; even after geopolitics cool down, there is still staying power.

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