Based on the loss status of holder $BTC to determine the accumulation zone

In the crypto market, there’s a fairly simple rule—but extremely effective: when most investors are losing money, that’s often the right time to start accumulating gradually. The reason is very clear. When the majority are at a loss, those who want to sell out of panic have almost finished selling. Market sentiment cools down, expectations drop sharply, and selling pressure is no longer as intense. This is exactly the foundation for a medium- to long-term bottom to form. A Bottom Doesn’t Happen in a Single Day In each cycle, the “majority is losing money” condition usually lasts for many months, sometimes even longer. The bottom isn’t a single drop followed by an immediate sharp rebound. The market often has additional retest moves, and may even form a lower low before a real reversal occurs. So, what matters isn’t guessing the exact bottom, but identifying a price zone with a good probability of accumulation. 50%–60% Threshold Is an Important Signal Based on Bitcoin on-chain data, if: More than 50% of supply is in a loss state → The market has already come very close to the bottom zone.About 60% of supply is at a loss → This is usually an extremely “comfortable” area to start accumulating gradually, because this is when pessimism reaches its peak. In the current cycle, the new loss ratio is only around 45%. That suggests the market may still not have entered the stage of “widespread capitulation”—where people who try to hold out through their losses are finally forced to exit the game. This stage is often referred to as the “capitulation” process. A Sensible Strategy: Don’t Chase the Bottom, Only Allocate Gradually Instead of trying to pinpoint the lowest price, a safer strategy is: Wait for the market to enter a phase of widespread losses.Observe the prolonged exhaustion of capital flows.Allocate capital in portions over time. The advantages of this approach: Most of the selling pressure has already been released.The risk of “going even deeper” after entering a position with a significantly reduced entry price.Market sentiment is at an extreme level of pessimism—which history suggests is often a good opportunity. A 60%–70% Drop From the Peak Looking back at past cycles, the “most comfortable” buying zones typically appear when the price has already fallen by about 60%–70% from the peak. This isn’t an absolute rule, but it’s a repeating pattern seen many times. In short, big opportunities don’t show up when the market is euphoric; they show up when the majority is discouraged and in loss. By patiently waiting for that painful accumulation phase, then deploying capital with discipline, you often gain much more advantage than trying to nail the bottom in the short term.