Assessing NextDecade (NEXT) Valuation As Shares Struggle And Premium P/B Raises Questions

Simply Wall St

Tue, February 17, 2026 at 8:13 AM GMT+9 4 min read

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Why NextDecade Is On Investors’ Radar Today

NextDecade (NEXT) has been drawing attention after recent share price swings, with the stock up about 2% over the past day but showing weaker moves over the past month and past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for NextDecade.

That small 1 day share price gain sits against a softer backdrop, with a 90 day share price return of a 13.1% decline and a 1 year total shareholder return of a 36% loss, so recent momentum looks weaker even though the 5 year total shareholder return remains strongly positive.

If this LNG and carbon capture story has your attention, it can be worth lining it up against other energy exposed ideas using our screener of 85 nuclear energy infrastructure stocks.

With the share price under pressure over 1 and 3 years, and sitting well below the average analyst target of US$9, the key question is whether this signals an undervalued LNG and CCS story or a market that is already pricing in future growth.

Preferred Multiple of 8.9x Price-to-Book: Is It Justified?

On the latest numbers, NextDecade trades on a P/B of 8.9x, well above many peers, even though the share price is $5.20 and the stock has been under pressure over 1 and 3 years.

P/B compares a company’s market value to its accounting book value, so an 8.9x reading suggests investors are paying a high premium to the current equity base for this LNG and CCS build out story.

That premium stands out when it is compared with both the US Oil and Gas industry average of 1.5x and the peer group average of 1.4x. This indicates the market is assigning NextDecade a much richer valuation multiple than many comparable names.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Result: Price-to-Book of 8.9x (OVERVALUED)

However, you also need to weigh funding and execution risk on a large LNG and CCS build, as well as the possibility that weaker project economics could challenge that rich P/B multiple.

Find out about the key risks to this NextDecade narrative.

Another View: DCF Points In A Different Direction

While the 8.9x P/B ratio already looks rich against peers, our DCF model presents a different perspective. With the SWS DCF model estimating future cash flow value at $2.14 per share compared to today’s $5.20 price, the stock appears overvalued on this approach.

This kind of gap can matter in practice, because it raises a simple question for you as an investor: are you comfortable paying more than double what a cash flow based model suggests the business might be worth?

Continua a leggere  

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

NEXT Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out NextDecade for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 54 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own NextDecade Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or simply want to put your own stamp on this LNG and CCS story, you can build a personalised thesis in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your NextDecade research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include NEXT.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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