Regarding whether the war will come to a complete halt and whether the Strait of Hormuz can resume navigation

From the current situation, a full cessation of the war is premature, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is also limited. This ceasefire is essentially "conditional and time-limited": Iran agrees to ensure safe passage through the strait within two weeks, provided the United States halts bombing. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council explicitly stated that "negotiations do not mean an end to the hostilities," and only after adhering to the 10 ceasefire terms and finalizing the details will they accept ending the conflict. The first ships have already passed through the strait, but there are still 426 oil tankers and hundreds of other ships stranded in the area, and congestion has not been resolved. After the two-week window, if negotiations launched on April 10 do not make substantial progress, there remains a risk of renewed escalation.

Crude oil, cryptocurrencies, and precious metals allocation strategies

Crude Oil — Short-term bearish outlook, but medium-term should not be overly pessimistic. The ceasefire news quickly wiped out geopolitical risk premiums, with WTI crude futures dropping over 19% intraday to $91.3 per barrel. However, the Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil transportation. If negotiations break down, oil prices could spike rapidly again. Goldman Sachs forecasts WTI at $67 in Q4 2026 (assuming gradual reopening of the strait), and JPMorgan predicted Brent at around $60 pre-war. It is recommended to participate in short-term short positions with strict stop-losses to avoid excessive bearish bets.

Cryptocurrencies — Short-term optimistic, but caution is needed for "good news already priced in." Bitcoin quickly surged past $72,000 after the ceasefire announcement, with market sentiment rapidly shifting from "extreme fear." FalconX traders noted, "Until a lasting solution is seen, the market will remain volatile." During the upcoming two-week negotiation period, if the situation stabilizes, BTC may oscillate between $70,000 and $75,000; if negotiations fail and the strait closes again, it could quickly drop to support at $65,000. It is advised to hold core defensive positions in BTC and ETH, while small allocations to high-beta altcoins can be considered for rebounds with controlled positions.

Precious Metals — Still valuable for medium-term allocation. Gold surged against the trend to over $4,800 after the ceasefire news, and silver also rose over 5%. This movement defies the traditional "good news is followed by decline" pattern, indicating long-term skepticism among institutional investors about fiat currency credibility and global geopolitical stability. Many believe that after short-term pressure eases, prices will rebound in oscillation. Maintaining a certain proportion of gold as a long-term defensive asset is recommended.

Overall, the two-week ceasefire is just a "breathing window," not a trend reversal. It is advisable to adopt a defensive stance with "mainstream coins + gold," combined with crude oil short positions for swing trading, closely monitoring the progress of negotiations on April 10. Maintain flexible position management to avoid over-committing in extreme volatility. #加密市场回升