Just caught the cocoa rally on Tuesday - March futures up nearly 2% in NY and over 3% in London. Interesting timing since Ivory Coast shipments have been slowing down compared to last year, which is sparking some short covering in the market. The data shows deliveries are running about 4.7% lower year-over-year in their current season.

That said, there's still a lot of headwinds. Global supplies remain pretty abundant and demand has been weak - chocolate makers are struggling with volumes as consumers push back on higher prices. European cocoa processing dropped significantly last quarter, and inventories at ports have actually been climbing back up. Plus, West Africa is seeing favorable growing conditions, so the upcoming harvest could add more pressure.

Nigeria's the wild card here though. Their exports are down and production forecasts are getting cut, which is helping support prices. But overall, it feels like the rally might face resistance unless we see a real supply shock. Worth watching the harvest reports over the next few weeks for cocoa news on where this heads.