Wintermute: The accumulated energy in the crypto market has not yet reached a consensus, and the direction will be determined by the trigger point.

ME News update: On March 31 (UTC+8), Wintermute said that the four-week easing window is coming to an end, and the issue still shows no signs of being resolved. Brent crude is above $112, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut, and the probability of rate hikes keeps rising. The macro ceiling for risk assets is lower than it was a month ago, making it difficult for Bitcoin to sustain prices above $70,000. The March 27 expiry not only cleared $14 billion of risk exposure, but also eliminated the delta-hedging capital flows that previously caused spot prices to oscillate around a key strike-price range. Without this kind of passive buy/sell order flow providing a supporting structure, the market is more prone to one-sided moves driven by reduced capital flow. On top of that, negative ETF flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, plus high perpetual contract leverage that still has no clear direction in a period of low volatility, means such a market setup will not gradually evolve—it will instead suddenly break out. If there is credible progress on the diplomatic front, and oil prices fall back to around $100, then shorts will face the risk of being forced out of positions, and Bitcoin could rebound to the $70,000 to $74,000 range. If the situation continues to ease, the $74,000 resistance level may be tested. Conversely, if tensions further escalate and oil prices push up to $120, Bitcoin could fall to just over $60,000; if the cycle plays out similarly, it could even drop into the $50,000 to $55,000 range. More importantly, the directional problem here is secondary compared with the market setup itself. Perpetual contract leverage is high, funding rates are fluctuating within the narrowest range on record, and volatility fluctuations are compressing. Regardless of which direction the catalyst pushes, the market structure indicates that the resulting market volatility will be far greater than what is currently reflected in the pricing of spot, perpetual contracts, and options. (Source: Foresight News)