Wintermute: The accumulated energy in the crypto market has not yet reached a consensus, and the direction will be determined by the trigger point.

ME News update: On March 31 (UTC+8), Wintermute said that the four-week easing window is about to end, while the issue shows no signs of resolution. Brent crude is trading above $112, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut, with the probability of further rate hikes continuing to rise. The macro ceiling for risk assets is below a month ago, which makes it difficult for Bitcoin to sustain prices above $70,000. The March 27 expiry didn’t just clear $14 billion in risk exposure—it also removed the delta-hedging capital flows that had previously made spot prices oscillate around the range of key strike prices. Without this passive buying and selling order flow providing a structural support, the market is more prone to develop a one-way trend as capital flows thin out. Add to that negative ETF flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the fact that while perpetual contract leverage rates are high, there is no clear direction amid the cycle’s low volatility—such a market setup will not gradually evolve, but will instead suddenly break out. If there is credible progress on the diplomatic front, and oil prices pull back to around $100, then shorts will face the risk of being squeezed, and Bitcoin could rebound to the $70,000–$74,000 range. If the easing trend continues, the $74,000 resistance level may be tested. Conversely, if the situation escalates further and oil prices are pushed up to $120, Bitcoin could fall to just over $60,000; if the cycle plays out similarly, it could even drop into the $50,000–$55,000 range. More importantly, the directional issue here is secondary to the market regime itself. Perpetual contract leverage is elevated, funding rates are fluctuating within the narrowest range on record, and volatility-of-volatility is compressing. No matter which way the catalyst pushes, the market structure indicates that the resulting price volatility will far exceed the level currently reflected in the pricing of spot, perpetual futures, and options. (Source: Foresight News)