My thoughts are largely unchanged.

I think Bitcoin has put in its major low at $60k, beyond a deviation sweep lower at some point this month.
If it happens, it happens in the first half.
Where we are right now is within a mid cycle correction(yes it is a big one), that happens within every cycle.
But the major move higher across all assets is yet to come.
This is very easy to see when you cross reference all major market charts, like i have done here.
The only asset that looks to have had a full cycle is Bitcoin, nothing else has.
And that is because this is the first cycle where it was independently pushed higher by institutional and government adoption.
Its also why it was the weakest cycle so far, because the overall expansive backdrop, for the first time, was not there to maintain it.
For every other major chart, they still show we are mid cycle.
ETH is still ranging
ETH/BTC is within its up trend, not topped
OTHERS.D has bottomed, not topped.
PMI has only been in expansion 3 months
The market is also becoming increasingly resilient to all forms of bad news.
We have:
- Had 6 months of negative price action
- Iran conflict with a clear timeline to end
- Clarity Act waiting to get final approval
- Kevin Warsh taking FOMC chair in May
- All major market charts lining up for expansion
- ISM now in expansion for 3 months straight
Imo the market is underpricing how many rate cuts we will have this year and just how much money will flow.
Any transitory inflation from OIL will be just that... it will come back down.
In any case, Warsh has stated he is a strong believer in AI being highly deflationary, meaning he will cut into low employment.
The market is coiled for an explosive move higher with just a few key chess pieces moving that will all very likely happen this month.
if we get sub $60k, i think it will be short lived and will present some incredible buying opportunities before we move higher this year and catch all 4 year cyclors off gaurd.
I think it will be the most shocking move the Crypto market has ever seen tbh.
The market takes time to fully expand after ISM expansion, but it always has. Every time.
We are going higher this year, not lower.