Geopolitical disturbances fade, and the A-shares return to the "slow bull" nature, with a stepwise pattern of "advance two, retreat one" beginning#财经##今日看盘##股票#

On the morning of March 31, after opening higher and then oscillating, the A-shares retreated slightly, with the rebound trend continuing. At midday, the Shanghai Composite Index dipped 0.38%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices rose 1.45% and 2.36%, respectively, showing clear structural divergence.
In terms of sectors, transportation equipment, ships, home appliances, engineering machinery, and aerospace led the gains; coal, gas supply and heating, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, chemicals, and diversified finance declined the most. On the individual stock level, 1,688 stocks rose, 3,651 fell, 44 hit the daily limit up, 6 hit the daily limit down, and 239 stocks declined more than 5%, indicating a short-term loss-making effect remains significant.
In the half-day trading, the two markets saw a total turnover of 1,339.9 billion yuan, with net outflows of 51.02 billion yuan from major funds; consumer electronics, medical services, and precious metals received the largest net capital inflows.
Core logic: Geopolitical disturbances diminish, and the market returns to fundamentals
Today’s market variable mainly comes from the easing of the Middle East situation: relevant parties have issued positive signals, significantly reducing the risk of conflict escalation, and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to return to normal operation.
As a result, international oil prices quickly declined, and concerns about inflation eased considerably. This means that the A-shares are gradually shaking off short-term disruptions caused by geopolitical events and refocusing on macro fundamentals and their own operational logic.
A-shares "essence": Slow bull + stepwise "advance two, retreat one"
The core operational paradigm of the market can be summarized as a slow bull and a stepwise "advance two, retreat one," supported by three main factors:
1. Era background: declining real estate, low risk-free rates, and residents shifting wealth allocation toward equities, requiring a steady slow bull pattern.
2. Market mechanism: after nearly two years of improvement, the market stabilization mechanism has matured, reducing the likelihood of sharp rises and falls, increasing the correlation between stock prices and fundamentals, and strengthening investment attributes while weakening speculative ones.
3. Market correction: after a rapid rise at the beginning of the year, the index experienced oscillations and adjustments, essentially a correction of the rapid increase; the current adjustment is nearing its end, and the market is returning to a reasonable "stepwise upward" rhythm.
Technical outlook: Short-term pullback completed, rebound expected
From a technical perspective:
- The Shanghai Composite Index showed a half-day surge and then a retreat, leaving an upper shadow, indicating a short-term need for a pullback;
- The ascending triangle pattern formed over the past seven trading days remains intact, with the MACD green bars continuously shortening, suggesting the pullback is more about digesting unrealized gains;
- On the 30-minute cycle, the index retested key support levels, and the pullback is likely complete for now.
Overall judgment: The short-term bottom has been confirmed, and the medium-term upward pattern remains unchanged. A rebound in the afternoon is expected, with a higher probability of closing the day in the green.
Summary
Geopolitical disturbances fade, and the A-shares return to the "slow bull" nature, with a stepwise "advance two, retreat one" upward trend becoming the main theme. With more patience, the market will eventually give positive feedback.
(This article is a summary of market views and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market involves risks; invest cautiously.)