Polymarket "Probability of invading Iran before March 31 in the US" drops to 11%, down 6% in 24 hours

Odaily · 2026-03-29T01:01:33+00:00

Polymarket's prediction regarding the U.S. invasion of Iran shows that the probability of invasion drops to 11% before March 31, and rises to 62% before April 30. The Pentagon is preparing ground operations over the coming weeks, but it may not be a full-scale invasion; it could be a targeted raid against specific objectives. It is still uncertain whether Trump will approve.

Odaily

2026-03-29 01:01:33

Abstract generation in progress

Odaily Seer’s prophet channel monitoring shows that Polymarket’s probability of “invading Iran before March 31, US time” has fallen to 11%, down 6% over the past 24 hours; “invading Iran before April 30, US time” is temporarily at 62%, up 3% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, trading volume for this event contract has already exceeded $42.6 million.

Today, US officials said the Pentagon is preparing for several weeks of ground operations in Iran. As thousands of US soldiers and Marines arrive in the Middle East, if President Trump chooses to escalate the war, it could become a dangerous new phase of conflict. Officials said any potential ground action would not be a full invasion; it may instead be launched as a raid jointly by special operations forces and conventional infantry units. Such a mission could expose US personnel to a range of threats, including Iran’s drones and missiles, ground fire, and improvised explosive devices. As of Saturday, it is still unclear whether Trump will approve or reject the Pentagon’s full or partial plans.

Odaily Seer’s prophet channel continues to track prediction markets—see the changes before pricing.

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