Bitcoin in a cup formation – does the recent correction change the scenario?

The past few weeks have brought changes to the market. After Bitcoin reached its highs in January 2026, the price significantly contracted. Today, in March, BTC is trading around $72,870, down 1.5% in the last 24 hours. At first glance, this may seem concerning, but when we analyze the broader context—both technical structure and on-chain data—the picture turns out to be much more complex. The question is: are we witnessing a short-term pause in the upward trend, or is Bitcoin changing direction?

The Cup Formation Still Remains an Important Reference Point

Despite the declines, Bitcoin remains in a cup with handle pattern—a key technical pattern that has dominated daily charts for months. The handle forms above the rising neckline, which is an interesting signal. A rising handle indicates that buyers are entering at higher price levels, traditionally increasing the likelihood of a successful breakout through resistance.

Analysis of momentum confirms this optimistic view. From January to March, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a different picture than the price itself. Although Bitcoin has fallen sharply, RSI—an indicator measuring momentum by comparing gains and losses—shows higher lows compared to earlier periods. This bullish divergence, where the price makes lower highs but the oscillator strengthens, suggests selling pressure is weakening rather than intensifying.

On-Chain Data Reveal the True Nature of the Declines

Why did Bitcoin fall if the technical pattern looks positive? The answer lies in on-chain data. The current pullback is not driven by panic selling but by strategic profit-taking by investors holding large amounts of BTC.

The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator for long-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for at least a year—has decreased from about 0.60 to 0.58 in recent weeks. This movement indicates a significant wave of realized profit-taking. Importantly, demand-side behavior has not weakened to the same extent. Buyers are still entering the market, albeit more cautiously and methodically.

Whales Are Buying on Weakness

While long-term holders are selling, another market segment is doing the opposite. Entities holding over 1,000 Bitcoin—so-called “whales”—are consistently accumulating. Since mid-January, the number of these large holders has increased from around 1,273 to over 1,290. Although the increase seems small, its significance lies in the fact that whales have been buying assets both before and during declines, without increasing selling pressure.

This asymmetry between the behavior of long-term investors and big players suggests the market is divided in its intentions. Whales still believe in the growth potential, even as other segments realize profits.

Technical Levels: From Current Support to Growth Targets

From a price perspective, Bitcoin is at a critical point. To confirm the pattern’s validity, the price must stay above the support zone around $70,000. A breakout above $76,000 would open the way to test $80,000, and potentially higher levels.

According to analyses by crypto market teams, if demand persists and whales continue to accumulate, a positive scenario would see a move toward the $85,000–$95,000 range in the coming months, with a chance of reaching $120,000–$140,000 in the longer term of 2026.

On the other hand, a drop below $70,000 would significantly complicate the technical outlook. Falling below $68,000 could invalidate the current pattern altogether.

End of the Chapter or a Pause in Action?

Currently, the cup pattern for Bitcoin still holds, despite price testing. The recent correction appears to be a natural process where some investors close profitable positions, while large market players continue building their exposure.

A key condition for a return to growth is a change in the attitude of long-term holders—they need to stop selling and start accumulating again. Until this balance is achieved, the bullish scenario for Bitcoin within the existing pattern remains alive, though far from certain. The technical structure and the game between whales and smaller players will determine the next moves.