Tonight's non-farm payroll data is the key variable influencing the short-term trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum, directly determining liquidity expectations. Coupled with Middle East conflicts and oil prices, volatility will be amplified.

1. Data strength or weakness → Directly determines rise or fall (two core points)

1. Better-than-expected employment (strong data)

Federal Reserve becomes more hesitant to cut interest rates, leading to a rise in the US dollar and US Treasury yields.
Opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and Ethereum increases, making capital more likely to flow out.
Conclusion: Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to face downward pressure.

2. Much lower-than-expected employment (weak data)

Market expectations for rate cuts increase, causing the US dollar and US Treasury yields to fall.
As digital gold and risk assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum attract capital back in.
Conclusion: Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to rebound.

2. Middle East conflict + rising oil prices: double pressure

Rising oil prices → increase inflation expectations. Even with weak employment, the Fed dares not easily cut rates, creating stagflation expectations, which is a double negative for the crypto market.
Escalation of geopolitical conflicts → funds prioritize buying gold and US Treasuries for safe haven. Bitcoin's short-term safe haven attribute becomes ineffective, making it prone to follow the downward trend. #美伊局势影响 #欧洲股集体下挫 #加密市场小幅下跌 $BTC $ETH