Tonight's US Non-Farm Payrolls data is the key watershed that will determine the short-term direction of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The logic is clear in two points:

1. Core Market Logic

1. Better-than-expected employment data
The Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle is delayed, the US dollar and US Treasury yields rise, increasing the holding costs of crypto assets, which may lead to capital outflows and downward pressure on prices.

2. Significantly below expectations
Market expectations for rate cuts increase, the US dollar and US Treasury yields decline, and Bitcoin and Ethereum benefit from the liquidity easing expectations, attracting capital inflows and increasing the probability of a rebound.

2. Added Risks: Middle East Conflict + Oil Price Rise

Rising oil prices intensify inflationary pressures. Even with weak employment data, the Fed's room to cut rates remains limited, and stagflation expectations exert dual pressure on the crypto market.

When geopolitical conflicts escalate, funds tend to flow into gold and US Treasuries for safety. Bitcoin's short-term safe-haven attribute becomes ineffective, and it is likely to follow the downward trend.

3. Practical Recommendations

Before the data release: Strictly control positions, avoid high leverage, watch more and act less, to avoid disorderly fluctuations.

After the data release: If employment data is strong, reduce risk positions; if employment is weak, consider playing the rebound, but stay alert to geopolitical uncertainties and avoid stubbornly holding positions.