#美伊局势影响

The flames of the US-Israel-Iran conflict have already burned for five days. The US and Israel have intensified airstrikes, with missiles continuously hitting Iran’s command centers, air defense systems, and nuclear facilities. Iran, in turn, has launched wave after wave of missiles and drones, covering US military bases across the Middle East and key targets in Israel. And this is not even the worst part.

Against this backdrop, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suddenly spoke out, accusing Iran of developing nuclear weapons and destabilizing the region, and explicitly supporting US military actions. No sooner had she spoken than a series of bad news struck Japan.


(Takaichi Sanae accuses Iran, receives a heavy blow)

A senior advisor of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced: the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and any ships attempting to pass will be attacked. This move not only hits the US’s soft underbelly but also directly targets Japan’s Achilles’ heel.

Why? Because Japan’s energy lifeline is almost entirely dependent on the Middle East. About 95% of Japan’s oil supplies come from the Middle East, with 70% of that oil needing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Liquefied natural gas is slightly better, with around 15% coming from the Middle East, but this 15% is still an unbearable burden for Japan’s already strained energy network.

Japan may have strategic oil reserves, but that’s only a band-aid. International agencies estimate that a $10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices would cause Japan’s annual import costs to surge by approximately 1.3 trillion yen. Now that the strait is closed, markets are panicking, and analysts predict that prices could rise by $50 per barrel in the short term. This means that all of Takaichi Sanae’s efforts to control prices and stimulate the economy will be swept away by the tsunami of imported inflation.

Some analysts say that in the worst-case scenario, this energy crisis could shrink Japan’s GDP by 3%. For an economy long mired in deflation and sluggish growth, that’s undoubtedly a heavy blow.


(Hormuz Strait closed, no ships can pass)

Misfortune never comes alone! Just as Tokyo was struggling with soaring oil prices and a potentially blackout-plagued winter, another frontline report sent Japan’s security anxieties to a new level.

The latest report from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard shows that since the outbreak of conflict, over 680 US and Israeli soldiers have been killed or injured, and military facilities at multiple US bases in the Middle East have been destroyed. Among these, the most strategically significant achievement was the destruction of the US military’s deployed “THAAD” missile defense system, especially its core AN/TPY-2 phased array radar.

This system is the “eye” and “shield” of high-altitude regional defense in the theater. Its loss means that the US military and its allies face a dangerous gap in missile defense in the Middle East.

To fill this deadly vacuum, Washington’s decision-makers are urgently evaluating the redeployment of “THAAD” systems from other global theaters. Naturally, their focus has shifted to East Asia. It’s important to note that the “THAAD” systems deployed here have long-range radar detection capabilities and are viewed by US allies as a front-line node for strategic surveillance against China.


( Iran’s offensive against US and Israel intensifies )

News reached Tokyo like a bucket of cold water poured over their heads. Officials from Japan’s Ministry of Defense and the National Security Council broke out in cold sweat. They urgently convened a closed-door meeting, with the core topic being: if the US military’s “THAAD” in Korea is withdrawn, or if more Seventh Fleet ships, US military aircraft, or intelligence assets stationed in Japan are redeployed to the Middle East, how should Japan respond to China?

For years, Japan’s security architecture has been almost entirely built on the US-Japan Security Treaty and the forward military presence of the US. Its entire defense planning and deterrence posture toward China have been predicated on the US military’s presence. Now, with the Middle East conflict intensifying and the US showing signs of “two-front warfare,” being forced to reallocate global forces, Japan’s security strategy is directly shaken to its core.

Takaichi Sanae has already made an urgent appeal to the US, hoping Washington will promise not to withdraw key equipment protecting Japan and its allies. However, such a request appears powerless in the face of reality. Trump has hinted that the Iran conflict could be “significantly prolonged,” and when US bases in the Middle East and key allies like Israel come under direct attack, the “potential challenge” in East Asia must be temporarily deprioritized.


( US considers redeploying THAAD systems from Asia )

Now, Japan finds itself in an unprecedented double dilemma: on one side, its energy lifeline is cut off by Iran, risking a severe economic blow; on the other, its security umbrella may be withdrawn by the US, leaving it to face a rapidly growing and close China alone. Tokyo’s decision-makers may now be re-evaluating the cost of their declaration of alignment with the US.

This US-Israel-Iran conflict is like a shockwave thrown into the chessboard, violently stirring the global strategic landscape. It clearly reveals a trend: the US’s attempt to maintain absolute dominance in the Middle East and to contain China in the Asia-Pacific is becoming increasingly difficult. The chaos in the Middle East provides China with a time window to expand. China’s reunification effort is an inevitable historical trend and will not be affected by any external interference.


( Trump’s stance will not change due to Japan’s requests )

No matter how anxious Japan is, it cannot reverse this trend dictated by the shifting power of great nations and the laws of geopolitics. Its current predicament precisely illustrates how dangerous and shortsighted it is to tie its national fate entirely to another great power’s chariot and to provoke a rising neighbor. Takaichi Sanae will inevitably pay a painful price for her provocation.