#美伊局势影响 The US-Iran situation sparks a major divergence in global assets | Will BTC stay steady at 70,000? Is gold/oil/BTC the true safe haven? Is the Fed's rate cut on hold?

The US announced an imminent large-scale attack on Iran, and the Middle East geopolitical storm is directly stirring up global financial markets: risk assets are fluctuating across the board, traditional safe havens like gold and oil are strengthening simultaneously, while Bitcoin is rebounding against the trend. Three core issues are now directly in front of all investors👇

1️⃣ BTC rebounds against the trend, is the 70,000 level really stable?

In the context of geopolitical tension, BTC surged briefly to touch 70,000. It seems to be breaking out independently, but it’s far from stable. On one hand, institutional funds are entering the market driven by safe-haven narratives, combined with supply exhaustion and short-term holders' reluctance to sell, supporting the price at a key level; on the other hand, BTC remains a high-volatility risk asset. Sudden escalation of conflict, leverage liquidations, or ETF capital flow reversals could cause it to lose the 70,000 level again. In the short term, it’s more likely to fluctuate rather than break through decisively.

2️⃣ Gold vs. Oil vs. BTC, who is the strongest safe haven right now?

- Gold: Fully embodies safe-haven and inflation hedge attributes. It’s the top choice amid geopolitical conflicts, with the highest capital inflow certainty, minimal volatility, and strong resilience, making it a stable safe haven.

- Oil: Directly benefits from Middle East supply disruptions, with the greatest price elasticity. However, it is heavily influenced by supply and demand, OPEC+ policies, and Strait navigation expectations, leading to high volatility and risk.

- BTC: Its rebound is driven by sentiment and capital flows. Its safe-haven properties are questionable; in extreme risk scenarios, institutions may sell off, making it highly elastic but not a safe harbor.

Conclusion: Currently, gold is the best safe haven, oil offers profit potential, and BTC remains a speculative game.

3️⃣ Will escalating conflicts push up inflation and block the Fed’s rate cut path?

The answer is highly likely yes. Crude oil is the core anchor of inflation; a sharp rise in oil prices will transmit through logistics, chemicals, and consumer sectors, boosting imported inflation. The US already has sticky inflation above 2%, and combined with tariff costs, inflation expectations could easily resurface. Yellen and several others have warned that the Fed will be more cautious about rate cuts; the probabilities of cuts in March and June have been continuously lowered, with the rate cut timeline significantly delayed and the room for easing greatly reduced. A high-interest-rate environment will persist longer.

Every step of the US-Iran escalation is reshaping global asset pricing:
✅ Gold: Remains the safe haven king
✅ Oil: Highly elastic but extremely volatile
✅ BTC: Fluctuates around 70,000, don’t rely solely on it as a safe haven
✅ Fed: Rate cut expectations cooling, high-rate cycle extended

Geopolitical black swans are flying everywhere. Managing positions and embracing certainty are key to navigating volatility.