#比特币反弹

1. Current Rebound Qualification (2026-02-25 18:10)

This is a technical oversold rebound, not a reversal.

- Trigger: BTC quickly drops from over 69,000 to 62,500, oversold + short covering + US stock rebound resonance.
- Nature: Restorative rebound, no new large funds entering, ETF still net outflow.
- Positioning: A rebound during mid-term adjustment, not a new main upward trend.

2. Reasons for the rebound

1. Technical: Daily chart golden cross bottoming, 62,500 support effective, RSI oversold recovery.
2. Funds: Short-term liquidation decreases, short covering pushes prices higher.
3. Macro: US stock rebound, tariff sentiment easing, risk appetite temporarily restored.
4. Sentiment: Panic released after continuous decline, small amounts of bottom-fishing funds entering.

3. Key Levels (Spot/Contracts Reference)

- Support: 65,000 → 64,000 → 62,500 (break below targets 60,000).
- Resistance: 66,500 → 68,000 (strong resistance, requires volume + ETF inflow to break through).

4. Trading Suggestions (Primarily Spot)

- Wait and see: No volume in rebound, ETF outflow ongoing, avoid heavy bottom-fishing.
- Small position trial: Position ≤20%, buy in batches around 65,000, stop loss if below 64,000.
- Don’t chase highs: Resistance in 66,500–68,000 zone, prone to pullback, avoid chasing rallies.
- Cautious in contracts: High volatility, long and short traps, very high risk.

5. Reversal Signals (Wait for confirmation before going long)

1. BTC stabilizes above 68,000 with volume breakout.
2. Spot ETF shows net inflow for 2 consecutive days.
3. Liquidation volume remains low, funding rate turns positive.