I personally feel that Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a black swan event anymore.

Currently, the market is all waiting for a black swan for BTC.
For example, MicroStrategy's collapse, quantum computers breaking the BTC network,
or the core value of Bitcoin being discredited to zero.
Bitcoin has entered the top ten assets by global market cap multiple times.
Historically, assets that have long dominated or repeatedly entered the top ten mean they are deeply embedded in the underlying logic of the global financial system, making it almost impossible to go to zero in the short term.
Based on an annualized volatility of 40% for Bitcoin,
a reasonable fluctuation over 0.6 years would be approximately 31%.
The current price is 63,000.
A normal retracement in a bear market would be a decline of about 31%,
bringing the price to around 44,000.
This level is similar to my previous estimate of the range between 40,000 and 50,000.
So the logic is:
Bitcoin is not crashing,
it's just a standard bear market correction.
A structural shift is most likely to occur by the end of the year.
Until then, the strategy is:
buy the dips or hold USDT and wait.
BTC starting with 5 should be bought in installments.
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