#BTC行情分析 February 24, 2026 Morning Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Macro bearish factors dominate, market enters safe-haven mode

This morning, the overall cryptocurrency market shows a weak downward trend, with Bitcoin breaking below the key support of $65,000, reaching a low of $63,877, hitting a new low since February 6. The market decline is mainly influenced by multiple macro bearish factors such as uncertainty in US tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and weakening Bitcoin ETF capital inflows. Within 24 hours, over 137,500 traders were liquidated, with total liquidation amounting to approximately $465 million, and market sentiment has entered extreme panic.

I. Market Overview and Key Data
As of early morning Beijing time on February 24, 2026, Bitcoin’s global spot price is $64,800 per coin, down 4.23% in 24 hours, with a intraday low of $63,877. The RMB price is ¥448,000 per coin, with a 24-hour high of ¥467,800 and a low of ¥442,000. Bitcoin’s total market capitalization is about ¥9.41 trillion (approximately $1.35 trillion), accounting for 71.5% of the global cryptocurrency market. The 24-hour trading volume is ¥389.08 billion, with a turnover rate of 4.34%.

Ethereum also declined, with a quote of $1,885.54, down 2.92%. Other major cryptocurrencies such as Solana fell 4.98%, Dogecoin down 0.35%, and XRP down 1.16%. The global crypto market shows a broad decline, with panic spreading among investors.

II. In-Depth Analysis of the Decline Causes
1. Increasing macro policy uncertainty
US President Trump posted on social media on Saturday that retaliatory tariffs against many US trading partners will be raised to 15%, “effective immediately.” Just a day earlier, the Supreme Court had rejected his previous trade tax law. XS analyst Linh Tran pointed out that the court’s rejection of Trump’s tariff measures and the government’s subsequent announcement of new global tariffs have significantly increased global trade uncertainty. Policy uncertainty often triggers short-term “safe-haven” sentiment, prompting investors to prioritize cash and bonds over highly volatile assets.

2. Escalation of geopolitical risks
Last week, US President Trump stated that due to Iran’s resistance to the new nuclear agreement, he will decide “within about 10 days” whether to strike Iran. Tensions have been escalating over the past few days, with the US continuously deploying military forces to the Middle East. The increased risk of conflict between the US and Iran has led investors to shift from risk assets like Bitcoin to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, with spot gold breaking through $5,220, up 2.4%.

3. Tightening market liquidity
Capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have significantly weakened, directly impacting market demand and dampening expectations for a sustainable bull cycle. Over the past three months, US-listed crypto ETFs have experienced nearly $4 billion in net outflows, with a single-day outflow exceeding $74 million. Meanwhile, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have shrunk by 14% over three months, indicating a severe lack of market purchasing power.

4. Technical and market structure factors
Previously, the market repeatedly rebounded but failed to break through the strong resistance at $70,000, with bullish momentum continuously waning and chip structure loosening. The weekly chart shows a double top pattern (at $79,200 / $71,400), with the current price breaking below the neckline at $68,000, and the measured target pointing toward the $60,000 region. After consecutive daily bearish candles, on February 23, Bitcoin tested support at $64,290 with a long lower shadow and rebounded, releasing some short-term selling pressure.

III. Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands show the price has broken below the middle band (around $67,170), currently running along the lower and middle bands, with a slight opening of the lower band, which often signals weakening momentum and potential downside risk. The moving average system shows a bearish alignment, with short-term moving averages turning downward; MA5 (around $65,539) is the first resistance level, with the price continuously suppressed below it.

Regarding MACD, the DIF line has crossed below the DEA line, forming a death cross, and the green bearish momentum histogram is expanding, indicating increasing downward momentum. The KDJ indicator is in the low zone (between 20-50), not yet forming a golden cross, suggesting market weakness and potential short-term further decline.

Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support: The immediate support is the 24-hour low of $63,888.79, with the Bollinger lower band at $64,512.42 providing some traction. If this support is effectively broken, a new downward wave may begin, with stronger support at the psychological $60,000 level.

Resistance: The first resistance is near the Bollinger middle line (MA/BOLL midline) at $67,170, followed by the MA30 at $67,813.54. Stronger resistance lies at the Bollinger upper band at $69,828.03. If the price stabilizes and rebounds above $66,000, the market may return to a consolidation pattern.

IV. Trading Strategy Recommendations
Short-term Trading (1-3 days)
Bearish Strategy: Currently, bearish forces dominate; consider short positions in the $67,500–$68,500 range, with a stop-loss at $70,500, and target below $66,500. If the price effectively breaks below $63,800 support, consider adding to short positions, targeting $62,000–$60,000.

Bullish Strategy: Only suitable for aggressive investors to try long positions lightly in the $63,500–$64,500 range, with a strict stop-loss of 500 points, targeting above $66,000. This strategy carries high risk and requires strict position control.

Mid-term Investment (1-4 weeks)
Wait-and-see approach: The market is currently in a consolidation-downtrend, with very weak rebound strength, declining volume, and strong market caution. Investors are advised to maintain low positions and wait for clearer signals.

Gradual Position Building: If Bitcoin drops to the $60,000–$62,000 zone, consider building positions gradually, with initial allocations not exceeding 20% of total funds, and adding 10% each time it drops by 5%. This zone aligns with the measured target of the weekly double top structure and provides strong technical support.

Risk Management Points
Position Management: Limit risk per trade to 1-3% of total funds; avoid full positions. Stop-loss Discipline: Always set stop-loss; not setting one risks liquidation. Emotional Control: Strictly distinguish between “planned trades” and “emotional trades” to avoid impulsive decisions driven by fear of missing out or revenge trading. Asset Selection: Focus on 2-5 familiar coins, and concentrate on 1-2 strategies for stability through repetition rather than novelty.

V. Market Outlook and Key Focus Points
Short-term Outlook (1-2 weeks)
The market will remain influenced by macro factors; closely monitor:
US-Iran developments: Whether Trump will decide on military action against Iran within about 10 days. Tariff policy implementation: The specifics of the new US global tariff plan. ETF capital flows: Whether Bitcoin ETF shows signs of capital inflow. Technical breakthroughs: Whether Bitcoin can regain above $66,000 and break through $67,170 resistance.

Medium to Long-term Outlook (1-3 months)
Despite short-term pressure, the long-term fundamentals of the crypto market remain intact. Institutional investors are accelerating their deployment, with a shift toward “pro-crypto” policies in the US, especially discussions about establishing a “Bitcoin strategic reserve,” injecting strong institutional confidence into the market. As Ethereum and other public chains continue to upgrade, and new narratives such as real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and decentralized social media take hold, the practical value of cryptocurrencies will become more deeply integrated into the digital economy.

Key Monitoring Indicators
Crypto premium: When this indicator returns to positive territory, it signals that US institutional buyers have re-entered the market.
Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 5 (extreme fear); consider active positioning only when this indicator rises above 20.
Stablecoin Reserves: Whether exchange stablecoin reserves stop declining and rebound, reflecting market liquidity conditions.
Open Interest: Changes in CME crypto derivatives open interest, indicating institutional fund movements.

This morning, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp decline amid multiple macro bearish factors resonating, with Bitcoin breaking below key support levels and market sentiment plunging into extreme panic. Technical analysis shows the market is in a consolidation-downtrend, with further downside risks in the short term. It is recommended to adopt a defensive approach, strictly control positions and risks, and wait for stabilization signals. In the medium to long term, the fundamentals of the crypto market remain solid, institutionalization continues, and the current correction offers strategic opportunities for value investors.