Is waving the tariff flag an "art of negotiation" or an "art of pricing"?

Whenever Donald Trump announces a new tariff policy, the candlestick charts of global markets instinctively tremble. Some say this is a resurgence of protectionism; others say it's an upgrade in bargaining chips. But if we look at it through the lens of his thinking in *The Art of the Deal*, it resembles more a business show of "starting high and then slowly negotiating."

What is the essence of tariffs? It's essentially attaching a "friendly reminder: more expensive" label to imported goods. Theoretically, it can protect domestic industries and make manufacturing feel like "finally, someone is standing up for us." But in reality, it often results in rising corporate costs, shrinking consumer wallets, and the capital markets playing out a drama of "emotions first, logic second."

From a strategic perspective, new tariffs are more like leverage. Raising barriers to gain negotiation space; creating pressure to secure concessions. The problem is, markets dislike uncertainty. What companies fear most isn't high taxes but "the way things are today, the way they will be tomorrow." Once supply chains need restructuring, costs don't just rise linearly—they grow geometrically.

Humorously speaking, tariffs are like an umbrella—they're meant to prevent rain, but if the wind is too strong, they might blow you away. In the short term, they can create a tough image and stimulate some industries to relocate; in the long run, they face the side effects of a reshuffle in global division of labor.

Therefore, new tariff policies are not simply a matter of "raising" or "lowering" taxes but a psychological game. Capital markets excel not at predicting outcomes but at pre-emptively speculating on expectations. As for who ultimately foots the bill? It's usually not the loudest shouters but the quietest consumers.

When policies become bargaining chips, markets turn into amplifiers of emotion. Investors who watch the storm calmly will understand one thing: tariffs can change prices, but they can't alter supply and demand; they can change slogans, but they can't change the cost structure. The real test isn't at the moment of announcement but in the chain reactions that follow after implementation. #我在Gate广场过新年