Is It Too Late To Consider Vistra (VST) After Its Surging Multi Year Run?

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 11, 2026 at 12:13 PM GMT+9 5 min read

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VST

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This article examines whether Vistra's current share price still offers value or whether most of the opportunity may already be reflected, focusing on what the present valuation implies for you as a shareholder or potential investor.

Vistra closed at US$159.60, with returns of 4.3% over the last 7 days, a 4.1% decline over 30 days, a 3.4% decline year to date, and a 4.3% decline over 1 year. Over 3 years and 5 years, the returns are described as very large at around 6x and 7x respectively.

Recent price moves come against a backdrop of ongoing interest in power producers and energy transition related companies, where investors often focus on assets, contracts, and long term cash flow visibility. For Vistra, this article takes that context as a starting point and focuses on what those expectations may indicate for the current share price.

Based on our checks, Vistra scores 2 out of 6 on undervaluation, as shown in the valuation score of 2. Next, we look at how different methods such as multiples and discounted cash flow compare, and then conclude with a way of thinking about valuation that can help you combine these models into a single, clearer narrative.

Vistra scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Vistra Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back into today’s dollars.

For Vistra, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, starting from last twelve month free cash flow of about $1.31b. Analysts provide detailed forecasts for the next few years, and projections up to 2035 are then extrapolated by Simply Wall St, with free cash flow in 2030 estimated at about $6.21b. All figures are in US$.

When those projected cash flows are discounted back, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $344.43 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $159.60, this implies the stock is about 53.7% undervalued according to this method.

On this model alone, Vistra’s current price sits well below the DCF estimate. This indicates meaningful upside potential if the cash flow projections are realized.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Vistra is undervalued by 53.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 51 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Story Continues  

VST Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Vistra.

Approach 2: Vistra Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful cross check on valuation because it links the share price directly to the earnings that support it. Investors typically accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger earnings growth or view the business as lower risk, and a lower P/E when growth expectations or perceived risks are more muted.

Vistra currently trades on a P/E of 56.33x. That sits well above the Renewable Energy industry average of 16.33x and also above the peer group average of 29.99x. On the surface, this suggests the market is willing to pay a higher price for each dollar of Vistra’s earnings than for many industry peers.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Vistra is 42.52x. This proprietary metric estimates what a more appropriate P/E could be after considering factors such as earnings growth characteristics, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks. Because it adjusts for these elements, the Fair Ratio is often more informative than a simple comparison with industry or peer averages. With Vistra’s current P/E of 56.33x above the Fair Ratio of 42.52x, the stock appears overvalued on this multiple based approach.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:VST P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 23 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Vistra Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. These are simply your own story about Vistra that ties what you think will happen to its revenue, earnings and margins into a forecast, then into a fair value that you can easily compare with today’s price on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors share views. This fair value gets automatically refreshed when new earnings, news or guidance arrive. You can then see, for example, how one Vistra Narrative might lean toward the higher fair value around US$293 with faster growth and higher margins, while another might sit closer to US$169 with more modest assumptions. This gives you a clear, side by side way to decide whether the current price looks high or low versus the fair value that best matches your own view.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Vistra? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:VST 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include VST.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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